Alright Nevada!
Also, why does 538 use Polls-Plus as the default for the Senate Forecast anyway?
I think the real question is why they don't for the presidential race. I forget where, but Silver said that the polls-plus model is the one they have the most confidence in.
...Actually, now that I think about it, I think that the low number of polls would make anything but the polls-plus model swing wildly with any change. With fewer polls, the polls-only could end up looking very similar to the nowcast (although for some reason it doesn't, it just looks like the polls-plus adjusted in favor of one of the candidates
).
