NH-UMass Lowell/7 News Daily Tracking Poll Thread

[Sorenroy]

When will the specifics/crosstabs be realized/are they already there and I missed them?

The PDF is here: http://www.uml.edu/docs/TOPLINE%20-%20UMassLowell-7NEWS%20NH%20PRIMARY%2020160201_tcm18-230419.pdf

They plan on releasing a poll every day leading up to the New Hampshire primary which is interesting.

Also this is the highest Sanders has ever polled ever and ties the lowest Clinton polled when Biden was still being polled in the race.

[Sorenroy]

Full Republican Numbers (for likely voters)
Trump — 38
Cruz — 12
Kasich — 9
Bush — 9
Rubio — 8
Christie — 7
Carson — 3
Paul — 3
Fiorina — 2
Santorum — 1

All others at zero.

[Sorenroy]

Sanders leads in every demographic they polled except “How much of the time can you trust the federal government in Washington DC to do what’s right?” In which "Always/Most of the Time" had a 46-46 split.

[Sorenroy]

http://www.uml.edu/docs/2-2%20TOPLINE%20-%20UMassLowell-7NEWS%20NH%20PRIMARY_tcm18-230491.pdf

Candidates polling:
Candidate — Percentage (Change from yesterday.)

Democrats:
Sanders — 63 (+2)
Clinton — 30 (No Change)
O'Malley* — 1 (No Change)

Republicans:
Trump — 38 (No Change)
Cruz — 14 (+2)
Rubio — 10 (+2)
Kasich — 9 (No Change)
Bush — 9 (No Change)
Christie — 5 (-2)
Carson — 3 (-1)
Paul — 2 (-2)
Santorum — 1 (No Change)
Fiorina — 3 (+1)
Huckabee* — 0 (No Change)

*While it looks like both Huckabee and O'Malley were options in todays polling, both have suspended their campaigns.

[Sorenroy]

Under 30: 91% Sanders. Ouch!!!
Sanders leads among "Conservative" democrats.

To be clear, Sanders actually not only leads all the demographics that they polled for, he has a majority in each one (has over 50% even when you include those who are undecided or other).

[Sorenroy]

February 3rd Full Numbers Update (Conducted between 1/31/2016 and 2/2/2016):

http://www.uml.edu/docs/2-2%20TOPLINE%20-%20UMassLowell-7NEWS%20NH%20PRIMARY_tcm18-230491.pdf

Candidates polling:
Candidate — Percentage (Change from yesterday.)

Democrats:
Sanders — 61 (-2)
Clinton — 32 (+2)
O'Malley* — 1 (No Change)

Republicans:
Trump — 38 (No Change)
Cruz — 14 (No Change)
Rubio — 12 (+2)
Bush — 9 (No Change)
Kasich — 7 (-2)
Christie — 6 (+1)
Fiorina — 3 (No Change)
Carson — 3 (No Change)
Paul — 2 (No Change)
Santorum — 0 (-1)

*While O'Malley was an option in todays polling, he have suspended his campaign.

[Sorenroy]

This poll was conducted over a three day period from 2/1/2016-2/3/2016. This means that the next poll will be the first to be conducted fully after the Iowa Caucuses.

Change from yesterday:

Democrats:
Clinton — +4
Sanders — -3

Clinton now leads people over the age of 65 52-40, and post graduate degree educated 49-44. She is behind in all other groups with 18-29 year olds being her worst at 87-13 (zero undecided) Sanders.

Republicans:
Rubio  — +3
Carson — +1
Ted Cruz — ±0
Kasich — ±0
Fiorina — ±0
Bush — -1
Christie — -1
Trump — -2

Undecided has doubled since the last poll, in part for continuing drop outs, and now stands at 8% for the Republican Party. Donald Trump leads his opponents in every question they asked.

[Sorenroy]

This poll was conducted over a three day period from 2/2/2016-2/4/2016. This is the first fully post-debate poll. As such I will be comparing to both yesterdays poll, and their poll released 2/1/2016 which was the only one conducted fully before the Iowa Caucus (thanks Mr. Modern).

Change from yesterday/first poll:

Democrats:
Clinton — +4/+10
Sanders — -3/-6

Clinton is steadily closing the gaps amongst all groups but only actually leads two of them: 65+ year olds 54-39 and non-whites 53-45. Her worst group remains 18-29 year olds who she looses 89-11 (zero undecided) to Sanders.

Republicans:
Kasich — +1/-1
Rubio  — ±0/+7
Ted Cruz — ±0/+2
Fiorina — ±0/+1
Carson — ±0/±0
Bush — ±0/-1
Christie — ±0/-2
Trump — -2/-4

Correction: I originally had this saying that this was a post debate poll, but I meant post caucus. This has been corrected and the only mistake was my wording, not the data.

[Sorenroy]

Change from yesterday:

Democrats:
Clinton — +1
Sanders — ±0

Clinton has lost her lead amongst non-white voters (now 49-46 Sanders, 5% of Democrats), but has captured the key Conservative vote (56-42, 7% of Democrats). She also still holds a commanding lead amongst 65+ year olds which she wins 59-37 (+7 from yesterday, 28% of Democrats). Her worst group remains 18-29 year olds at 92-8 Sanders (+6 for Sanders from yesterday, 12% of Democrats).

Republicans:
Kasich — +2
Bush — +2
Trump — +1
Fiorina — ±0
Rubio  — -1
Ted Cruz — -1
Christie — -1
Carson — -1

Trump leads every group but Postgraduates.

[Sorenroy]

I have also made a sister poll on the General Election page since their match-ups for New Hampshire have become daily. You can find that thread over here if you are interested:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=228462.0

[Sorenroy]

Change from yesterday:

Democrats:
Clinton — ±0
Sanders — -1

Clinton now leads amongst older voters (50-64 year olds 49-46, 65+ year olds 52-40) and ties Sanders with those making over $100,000 a year (49-49). Sanders's best group has also somehow switched from 18-29 (now his second best at 77-23) to 30-39, which he leads Clinton 83-17.

They also have different models of turnout:
High has Sanders leading 57-39.
Low has Sanders leading 55-40

Republicans:
Kasich — +1
Christie — +1
Ted Cruz — ±0
Bush — ±0
Carson — ±0
Fiorina — ±0
Rubio  — -1
Trump — -2

Trump only ties those 30-39 years old at 22-22 with Cruz.

Also it appears that same weird trend is forming where high turnout actually does nothing or hurts Trump. In their low turnout module Trump wins 36 Trump to 14 Rubio, but in the high turnout module he wins 35-13 Rubio. Weird that both these modules have Trump support higher than it is in their actual poll results though. Must be some weird numbers we're not seeing somewhere in the middle.