Politico: The GOP’s Suburban Nightmare

[Young Conservative]

Excuse me if I don't take doomsday GOP narratives from liberal media sources seriously anymore.

[Young Conservative]

This is so exaggerated.  The only reason GA-6 was close this last election was because of Trump.  If the GOP had nominated anyone else, he/she would have carried that district by a wide margin, and probably most of the other R-leaning suburban enclaves that swung/trended D.

That said, the GOP has had a big problem with suburban voters since the 90s due to the rise of religious and social conservatives in the party.

If you subscribe to the idea that Trump has accelerated trends already in-progress (of which there is a good argument for), then there is no guarantee GA-6 will go back to where it was before. History is rife with examples of presidents pushing certain regions into the arms of the other party. Usually they just act as a catalyst for existing trends.

Feel free to believe this, but Rubio, Pence, or Cruz would win this district by double digits.

[Young Conservative]

I have nothing to back this up ATM, but don't you think we only are taught about the ones that stuck?  I mean, I'm sure there examples of states trending toward one party (like maybe the West trending toward first the populists [i.e., away from Republicans] and then eventually to heavily Democratic in the late 1800s only to become reliably GOP right after?) and the trend not sticking, but that doesn't really deserve the same "airtime" in a textbook as Southern Whites slowly going from 90% Democratic to 90% Republican.

Yes, that's true. I mean, there is really no strong evidence supporting the idea that districts like GA-6 will stick with current trends, but there also isn't much saying they will bounce back either. Though, I will readily admit that in this instance, given GA-6's history, it's more likely to bounce back than it is to continue trending Democratic. However after 2018 and even more so, 2020, if it's still going as Democratic as it is now, or more so even, then I'd say it might be fertile ground for Democrats.

I wish we could see where these kinds of districts will end up over a generation from now, but it's pretty hard to tell. All we have are demographics to go by, and that's not even a solid bet. If there is any group that we might expect to start trending against Democrats in the future, it's the kind of voters in this district: upscale white college graduates.

Upscale white college graduates aren't going to vote for people like Bernie Sanders and they definitely won't vote for tax increases for single payer, which is what the Democratic party is becoming.

[Young Conservative]

Gen Z is already to the right of the Millenials, as well.

Edgy 16-year-olds will not continue to think Trump is so cool once they have student loans to pay.

Edgy Bernie Millenials continue thinking universal healthcare is cool until they have to pay the taxes for it...