My prediction: Cruz does better in states not voting for Clinton. He does better because he's intelligent, always opposed to Trump, never gaffes (he's too smart), has a smart wife, would've have an intelligent attack dog VP who's beloved by Conservatives, and wouldn't have made terrible comments against heroic families and people in general. Iowa was already trending R, if it was anyone but Trump it would be leaning R. (and Cruz is a good fit for the educated and family centered midwest, along with Rubio).