Can Any Republican Win Like President Obama? (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 01, 2024, 04:08:25 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Can Any Republican Win Like President Obama? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Can Any Republican Win Like President Obama?  (Read 1168 times)
Young Conservative
youngconservative
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,031
United States


« on: April 02, 2016, 04:42:44 PM »
« edited: April 02, 2016, 04:45:27 PM by Silent Cal »

President Obama won in 2008 by 7.1 points. If a Republican were to win by the same margin, the map looks like this:



Republican: 395
Democrat: 120
Tossup(Both +8 Democrat states): 23

This is a blowout unseen for decades. So, who can:
1. Galvanize the Base
2. Run a well organized and effective grassroots campaign
3. Debate and speak well
4. Be inspiring
5. Run against a bland and disliked moderate who cant win over people or galvanize the base (sound like a certain Democratic front runner?)
 To me, the only candidate that could potentially meet all of these ideas is Ted Cruz Versus Hillary Clinton . I am not saying this could be replicated given elasticity of each individual state not being factored in, but it is an intriguing thought that this could be the map about as easily as 2008 occurring, which was a pretty remarkable election. Could that be repeated in 2016? Even if the northern states aren't won, could Ted Cruz win over the midwest finally? Or could John Kasich do it by winning over enough moderate voters?
Logged
Young Conservative
youngconservative
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,031
United States


« Reply #1 on: April 02, 2016, 04:44:59 PM »

Im not saying it would happen,but in theory it is possible.
Logged
Young Conservative
youngconservative
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,031
United States


« Reply #2 on: April 02, 2016, 04:51:22 PM »


How exactly did you get that map? Did you just subtract 7 points from the Democratic margins of 2004, or something? If so, that's not really how things would actually play out on election day.
Yep. I didn't factor in elasticity as I stated in my explanation.
Logged
Young Conservative
youngconservative
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,031
United States


« Reply #3 on: April 02, 2016, 05:42:30 PM »

MN, MI, WI, and NV are probably out of reach for Republicans this year.

Everyone was probably saying the same thing about Indiana and North Carolina around this time in 2008. And look what happened.

Indiana had special circumstances (bad economy) at the time, and North Carolina's ongoing demographic and population changes had made it friendlier to Democrats - That is, if they were able to increase minority turnout and maintain/increase youth support, which Obama was able to do.

As far as I know, none of those states mentioned have any comparable pro-Repbulican trends. Nevada in fact has a clear pro-Democratic shift going on due to the growing power of minority voters there.
Actually, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Ohio have some pretty serious republican trends going on. The other states are increasingly competitive, but I wouldn't say Republican.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.029 seconds with 13 queries.