Camaro33
Jr. Member
Posts: 281
Political Matrix
E: 4.23, S: 0.17
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« on: February 13, 2016, 11:00:55 AM » |
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I believe many southeastern states with high black populations will trend to the right without Obama on the ticket. NC will still vote substantially left vs. 2004, but not at its 2012 level. This is even with the demographic trends and aging/dying out conservatives whites. Obama was a popular democrat with the base and popular with blacks in voting and turnout unlike any other Democrat. Things should vote somewhere between 2004 and 2012 for the very racially polarized southeastern states, closer to 2012 levels, but still trend right without Obama on the ticket. I expect Virginia because of these reasons to be a tossup, not North Carolina.
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