If Johnson fails, who is the next Conservative Leader?

[cp]

A lot would depend on the manner of Johnson's departure. If he stepped down without an election a la Cameron/May, presuming doing so was due to being shamed for breaking the 31 October Brexit date promise, then only someone who could credibly claim to be *even more* Brexity would do. Steve Baker, Ress-Mogg, Raab, Gove (maybe), etc.

If he stepped down due to losing an election then the field of candidates will likely be much different. Depending on the scale of the loss some of the most eligible contenders might not be MPs anymore (Rees-Mogg's seat was Lib Dem [ed. actually it was Labour. My bad] until 2010), especially if the Brexit Party eats into Tory margins in unpredictable ways. Meanwhile, such a scenario might also mean the complete collapse of Brexit as a guiding policy, so there might be latitude for the next leader to come from a more moderate wing of the party.

FWIW I think the most likely scenario is an election this autumn just before or just after the 31st of October with Brexit not accomplished, resulting in a parliament no longer led by the Tories.

[cp]

A lot would depend on the manner of Johnson's departure. If he stepped down without an election a la Cameron/May, presuming doing so was due to being shamed for breaking the 31 October Brexit date promise, then only someone who could credibly claim to be *even more* Brexity would do. Steve Baker, Ress-Mogg, Raab, Gove (maybe), etc.

If he stepped down due to losing an election then the field of candidates will likely be much different. Depending on the scale of the loss some of the most eligible contenders might not be MPs anymore (Rees-Mogg's seat was Lib Dem until 2010), especially if the Brexit Party eats into Tory margins in unpredictable ways. Meanwhile, such a scenario might also mean the complete collapse of Brexit as a guiding policy, so there might be latitude for the next leader to come from a more moderate wing of the party.

FWIW I think the most likely scenario is an election this autumn just before or just after the 31st of October with Brexit not accomplished, resulting in a parliament no longer led by the Tories.

Rees-Mogg’s seat was Labour. Source, I lived there.

Oops. My mistake.