2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[cp]

The Democrats are back up to an 8-point lead in the RCP average, 8.4 at 538.

Meanwhile, 538's average is 10.5.

It is *very clearly too early* to make anything this. However, the pattern also very clearly corresponds to the GOP in 2010 and the Dems in 2006.

[cp]

The Democrats are back up to an 8-point lead in the RCP average, 8.4 at 538.

Meanwhile, 538's average is 10.5.

It is *very clearly too early* to make anything this. However, the pattern also very clearly corresponds to the GOP in 2010 and the Dems in 2006.

I think you're mixing your 538 averages (maybe you left out a couple of words).  538 has Trump disapproval at +10.5, with their GCB at D+8.4.

Oops. My bad. Thanks for pointing that out

That said, it has risen to D+8.9.

[cp]

https://giffords.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/FL-CD-25-ARS-May-2018-2-Questionnaire-1.pdf

PPP internal for Dem outside group in FL-25:

Flores (Dem): 39
Diaz-Balart(GOP): 46

Generic D: 45
Generic R: 47

Internal poll, GOP still ahead in generic ballot and match up; seems pretty unremarkable, no?

... oh

(Diaz-Balart won by nearly 2:1 margin in 2016. That even a partisan internal poll could show him <50% and within single digits is awful for him, and most every other Republican this year)

[cp]

This poll seems pretty unrealistic. I believe he's underwater, but not by that much, which calls the GCB numbers into question too. As we've seen with polls, non college educated voters tend to be underpolled.

Hmm, another thing to consider too. No poll expected the Rust Belt/Midwestern collapse of Hillary to the extent of what went down election night.

After an election, pollsters always look to see where they were wrong, and why. They will have noted the issue of underpolling non-college educated voters and should generally have changed their methodology to reflect that for 2018. So while they may have been underpolled in 2016, they are unlikely to be underpolled in 2018 as well. Pollsters do not like to be wrong 2 times in a row for the same reason. Instead, they prefer to be wrong 2 times in a row for a cycle of alternating reasons.

You don't need to look any further than the UK to show this mindset in effect. Pollsters so over-corrected of the 2015 polls that they created the opposite effect in 2017.

[cp]

By my count that's four GCB polls in the last 2 days that show a double digit Dem lead. Is this a random jump that gets corrected with the next batch of polls, or should we start reconsidering the likely range of outcomes? i.e. Dem leads in the 10-15 range instead of the 5-10 range.