Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Drew]

A look at the current declared candidates for downballot statewide offices (per Politics1).

Lt. Gov:  This is an open seat with Barnes running for Senate.  The only declared candidate so far is Mayor of Lancaster David Varnam (R).

AG: This is the most meaningful of the downballot statewide races.  Incumbent Josh Kaul (D) is unopposed in his primary.  There are two GOP candidates, law professor Ryan Owens and Fond du Lac County DA Eric Toney.  Toney is endorsed by many DA's and sheriffs, while Owens is endorsed by the Wisconsin Right to Life, along with conservative former WI Supreme Court justices Dan Kelly and Michael Gableman.

SOS:  Longtime incumbent Doug LaFollette (D) is the only declared candidate for this largely ceremonial office.  His official SOS website looks like something from the 90s, while his "campaign" site is his Facebook page.

Treasurer:  With Godlewski vacating, there's only one candidate declared so far, West Allis alder and veteran Angelito Tenorio (D).  He has collected a number of progressive endorsements.

[Drew]

State Sen. Patrick Testin (R-Stevens Point) running for LG.  He’s the highest-profile GOP candidate so far for the seat.  He issued a statement calling the policies of Evers/Barnes “catastrophic”, among other hyperbole. 

From a state Senate perspective, he was just re-elected to SD 24 by a 56%-44% margin as the district swung R.  So if he is elected LG, this district would most likely stay in R hands in the event of a 2023 special election unless the redraw is really favorable for Dems.

Also running is some staffer for Ron Johnson.

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1441478522669834243?s=21

[Drew]

Legislative Republicans’ latest power grab: they want to eliminate elections for SOS, Treasurer, and state superintendent and have them be appointed positions subject to confirmation which they can obstruct.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2021/09/29/wisconsin-republican-lawmakers-want-superintendent-treasurer-secretary-state-appointed-not-elected/5914924001/

[Drew]

Potentially shades of the 2018 FL GOP Primary if Duffy runs, a Congressman who loves going on Fox News vs. a statewide officeholder that was perceived to be the favorite for the nomination.  Though in this case they’re both former elected officials rather than current ones like in the FL case, with the baggage of Duffy working on K Street and Kleefisch coming off an election loss.

[Drew]

Former state Rep. Adam Jarchow (R) running for AG

This is the guy who lost a Trump district in a special Senate election in 2018. 

[Drew]

https://twitter.com/jessieopie/status/1468627451223937027?s=20

This could draw a large primary. Dane County seats don't open up that often.

This is my district.  I would guess that my state Rep. Dianne Hesselbein will go for it, as she is the Assistant Assembly Minority Leader.

[Drew]

There will be a new Assembly Minority Leader at the beginning of the new year.

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1470478497160339457?s=20

So Hesselbein now has two possible paths, either become the new minority leader or run for the open Senate seat.

EDIT: I found an article shedding light on who could be the the new leader.  Looks like Mark Spreitzer (D-Beloit) and Greta Neubauer (D-Racine) are possibilities.  Hesselbein is going for Senate.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2021/12/13/gordon-hintz-step-down-leader-wisconsin-assembly-democrats/6499137001/[/url] Hesselbein said she plans to run to replace Sen. Jon Erpenbach, who announced last week he will not seek re-election and does not plan to run for Assembly minority leader.

Spreitzer said through a spokesman he is still considering the idea. Rep. Greta Neubauer of Racine is strongly considering running, according to her office.

Assembly Democrats will vote to elect their new leader on Dec. 20.

[Drew]

Greta Neubauer will be the new Dem leader, with Kalan Haywood being asst

It’s good to see for once an infusion of youth into Democratic leadership positions, as they are 30 and 22, respectively.

[Drew]

https://twitter.com/tmj4/status/1473670608076611593?s=21

This sets up a special mayoral election for April 2022.

[Drew]

Chris Larson considering a run for Milwaukee mayor.  Is there an office that this guy hasn’t run for?

https://twitter.com/chrisjlarson/status/1475637126851088385?s=21

[Drew]

Today was the filing deadline for the Spring Elections (excluding the Milwaukee mayor special, which has a deadline a week from now).  There is no statewide race for this election (Supreme Court, Superintendent, etc). 

Probably the race to watch would be for the District II Appellate Court.  Incumbent Lori Kornblum was appointed by Evers a few months ago to finish the term of R-aligned judge Paul Reilly, and she is now running for election to a full term.  Opponent Maria Lazar is endorsed by all of the Federalist Society types.  It would be a surprise if Kornblum holds on, given that the district contains much of eastern WI excluding Milwaukee County.  Lisa Neubauer was able to get re-elected here in 2020, but she had every factor going her way.

Districts III (northern WI) and IV (SW WI including Madison) are uncontested, while District I (Milwaukee Co.) has no election.  There are numerous circuit court seats on the ballot with the vast majority uncontested as usual.

Personally, I’ll be watching to see what happens with the Dane County board elections with the new district lines coming into effect.

[Drew]

https://twitter.com/jasoncalvi/status/1481326332890001411?s=21

The filing deadline for this race was yesterday. 

From what little I know about the candidates, Dimitrijevic seems to be popular among progressives.  Donovan is a conservative that was endorsed by David Clarke when he ran for mayor in 2016.  Johnson recently became mayor when Barrett resigned.  Lucas occupies the office formerly held by Clarke.  I know nothing about Sampson.  Taylor seems like she’s trying to become Wisconsin’s Jim Oberweis as she seems to run for everything.

[Drew]

We’re still pending redistricting, but this is not good news for Dems.  She won this district 51%-49% in 2018 as an established incumbent.  Superminority, here we come...

https://twitter.com/senbewley/status/1488623479301750785?s=21

[Drew]

We’re still pending redistricting, but this is not good news for Dems.  She won this district 51%-49% in 2018 as an established incumbent.  Superminority, here we come...

https://twitter.com/senbewley/status/1488623479301750785?s=21

Assuming this flips R's would have 22 senate seats although Dems have a pretty solid chance of picking up SD13 . It is currently Trump+19 but basically it will face the brunt of the Milwaukee district push westward while taking more of Dane County. On the other hand SD 31 is also there for the GOP to flip.  The remaining Dem seats are either not up or are safe. The Janesville seat is maybe on the very edge of winnable for the GOP.

SD13 has been moving toward Dems and the GOP could be held to a single digit win depending on redistricting, but I don’t see it flipping in the short term.  The most likely pickup for Dems is probably SD-5 just outside of Milwaukee.  Others to watch would be SD-17 SW of Madison which has stubbornly resisted flipping in its current form, and also SD-19 in the Appleton area.  Maybe SD-1 in Door County in a perfect storm.  Still, I have a bad feeling Dems will lose the 25th and 31st while gaining the 5th, putting them in a superminority in the Senate.

[Drew]

GQP State Rep. Timothy Ramthun running for governor.  Mike Lindell plans to do a rally with him this weekend.  He’s not very good at this whole internet thing:

https://twitter.com/charlespmyers/status/1491618346437165056?s=21

[Drew]

Today is Spring Primary Day in Wisconsin, with polls closing soon at 8 CT.  Most jurisdictions don’t have a primary today, with some places having municipal or school board races on the ballot today.  The big one to watch today is the special primary in Milwaukee for the mayor’s race, where the top two vote-getters advance to the general election in April. 

[Drew]

https://twitter.com/danielbice/status/1493771899217723399?s=21

Unless the absentees skew much differently, looks like it’s going to be Johnson vs. Donovan.  In other words, a generic D vs. R. race, as Donovan is the GOP-aligned candidate.  It would have been interesting to see how Johnson would do against Dimitrijevic, Lucas, or Taylor in a 2-way race.

[Drew]

How was Democratic turnout?

It’s a nonpartisan election in a state with nonpartisan registration, but not very good across the board:

https://twitter.com/bymattwild/status/1493782642247946248?s=21

[Drew]

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1511518876470812676?s=21&t=POsiTUtgi...

[Drew]

https://twitter.com/mspicuzzamjs/status/1511520626825207813?s=21&t=POsiTUtgi...

[Drew]

Donovan’s performance vs. 2016.

https://twitter.com/danielbice/status/1511531421256626177?s=21&t=POsiTUtgizi...

[Drew]

A cool development from a suburb just outside of Milwaukee.  The tiebreaking vote was a single provisional ballot.

https://twitter.com/seanrlowe/status/1512558452912136195?s=21&t=gRuW9kamnLZF...

[Drew]

Construction executive and failed 2004 Senate candidate Tim Michels running for Governor

Kind of a late entry into the race, and as the article suggests, Kleefisch maybe having trouble consolidating support among the base.  He can self-fund and will self-impose caps on contributions.  This could distinguish himself from the other Outsider^TM candidate Nicholson, who is basically Dick Uihlein’s puppet.  He’s also looking to reach out to labor interests as he touts his relationship with his unionized workers, which would (in theory) seem to contrast with the anti-union flavor of the Walker-Kleefisch admin.