The idea that Trump is finished is silly. Indeed, this 2nd place finish makes him look a little more sympathetic in some quarters.
The sheer number of people that came out for Trump has already been pointed out. Iowa holds its caucus in the dead of winter, and I don't know what the weather was like on previous caucus days, but Trump's vote total was still impressive.
Trump's ground game has always been the part of his game that lags behind (or so people say). In that vein, Trump was a close second in a state where religious conservatives have a strong advantage and have (arguably) been undercounted in polls. Cruz's surge was very much a surge of religious conservatives; he sucked ALL of the oxygen from the Huckabee and Santorum bubbles. Despite this, Cruz led Trump by only 3-4 points. Then, too, it was a caucus. Whatever flaws in Trump's ground game, he still got people out not just to vote, but to participate in the caucus. New Hampshire is just an ordinary primary, where folks can just go in and vote. And primaries have early voting. There is no early voting in NH, but SC and GA early voting begins next week. Amongst the Super Tuesday states where Trump is strong, TN, and AR all have early voting. FL and NC will have early voting for their primaries as well.
The issues that have driven Trump's candidacy aren't going away. He's still the lead dog on immigration. He's still the only GOP candidate challenging free trade, and there's a slew of Republicans with him on this (as Rubio and the Establishment are finding out).
What happened last night was that the race crystallized. The guys who got caught with their pants down were the guys who skipped Iowa. Kasich and Christie could not afford to skip Iowa, but they did, and they're NOT going to get it back in NH. Rubio's the establishment guy now. But the race has also crystallized in such a way that reflects a 2 to 1 deficit for Establishment Republicans. There are a lot of folks right now who want to endorse Marco Rubio, but one commentator pointed out that if there's a rush of endorsements, Marco will then get the "Establishment" tag turned into a tattoo.
What I do predict is that Jeb, Kasich, and Christie will be gone after New Hampshire. Everyone else will be dead folks walking. It's Cruz, Trump, and Rubio now. No one else counts.
Agree.
The more I think about it, Trump is in a much better position now than I would have thought possible last summer. I said Trump can't win the nomination, and I still think it's unlikely. But Trump beat all the establishment guys in Iowa. The race is up for grabs now. If Rubio starts winning states, then things sort themselves out. But if Trump and Cruz keep winning, we may be looking at a brokered convention.
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