Croatia parliamentary election - November 8, 2015

[aross]

Of the recent polls (which performed reasonably well for the two main parties last time, but missed the rise of Most), two have SDP+ with a decent 7-8% lead over HDZ and friends, while one shows only a tiny gap. Most are down 5-6% (from 13.5) across the board. Živi zid are surging (again) and are on 8-10%.

Seat projection by Promocija plus:
SDP+ 61
HDZ+ 49
Most 12
ŽZ 11
IDS 3
HDSSB 2
Bandic 2

This excludes the 3 diaspora seats which as usual will all go to HDZ and the 8 minority representatives who AIUI are arranged on a spectrum from "generally favouring the left" to "openly for sale".

All this would, of course, solve nothing because Živi Zid are impossibilist populists and will presumably never deal with Milanovic. Government formation would be even harder than before, essentially SDP+Most is the only feasible combination.