The Skowronek Theory of Presidential Cycles

[FalloutBoy97]

I think this theory has some merit (particularly as it can be fairly easily connection to the macroeconomic regime theory) and I want to believe that Trump will go down as a failed one-term president that unsuccessfully tried to bridge two political eras. But the thing about these theories is that they can be dismantled by a single instance. For example, I think that Trump has die hard supporters in a way that Carter and Hoover did not. Might that be enough for him to avoid a dramatic loss? The internet has also had the effect of hardening people into one camp or another, which makes it hard to imagine Trump supporters/"Reagan conservatives" from rolling over and accepting the new political order. There's just so many confounding variables when you're looking at this long of a time period.