How long can the republicans not make plays to minorities before they can't win?

[heatcharger]

This assumes that in, say, 2035, we will consider the same people to be "minorities" as now. That's a big assumption. In the past, groups "became" white. I don't see why this is not going to happen now.

True. Once miscegenation becomes even further mainstream, this country will be 95-100% white again. The GOP will be in good shape once that happens, but it may be a while.

[heatcharger]

This assumes that in, say, 2035, we will consider the same people to be "minorities" as now. That's a big assumption. In the past, groups "became" white. I don't see why this is not going to happen now.

True. Once miscegenation becomes even further mainstream, this country will be 95-100% white again. The GOP will be in good shape once that happens, but it may be a while.

You forget the way the American conception of race works.

If this were Latin America, you'd have a point, because there, the "white" part is seen as canceling out or "elevating" the other parts.

Whereas here, if a white person and a black person have a child, that child will inevitably be regarded as black. Same story for mixed-race "Eurasian" children.

With Latinos, it depends. Theoretically, if the child's father is white and they have a "white" surname as a result, and they have "passable" features, they won't regard themselves as nonwhite. But it's worth remembering that part of the reason this happens in Texas is that there are just so many Hispanic people to begin with. A half-Hispanic person in Boston or Pennsylvania is going to be perceived as a lot more "different" than they would in San Antonio.

I was being facetious, but yeah, I pretty much agree with you. However I would say that the one-drop-rule starts to get a bit tedious once a person is <25% black, because at that point it becomes hard to tell.