VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[heatcharger]

What about henster and LimoLiberal lol? I can't believe it. We just have to take out Dick Black and we have control of all of Virginia again.

[heatcharger]

I mean, I can do without the memes, but I'd appreciate some socialism.

(Thankfully, the new HoD Democrats provide plenty of it.)

No they don't... one dude doesn't represent the new caucus. Carter will be brought to heel once he's reminded he has to win this seat again every two years.

[heatcharger]

Lee Carter will transform into a sane moderate in less than two years. I'm already calling it.

[heatcharger]

Lee Carter will transform into a sane moderate in less than two years. I'm already calling it.

Probably not?

Trust me, he will not be a left-wing hellraiser once he's actually in office.

[heatcharger]

Nobody cares jfern, nobody cares. Just be thankful that Big Ralph Northam's mega coattails carried all these guys over the hump.

[heatcharger]

Here's your tentative swing map compared to 2013:

Remember when Northam skipping the Buena Vista parade was gonna be big deal? Lol, SW VA doesn't matter.

[heatcharger]

Taylor is too entrenched.

... what? Look Northam winning his district is one of the least surprising things about tonight and is probably not all that indicative of future events, but if Democrats put up a strong challenger, it could be interesting.

[heatcharger]

I know everyone implicitly understands that Northam's big victory was powered by backlash in the suburbs, but I feel like the county results haven't gotten the attention they deserve. Like these Northam vote %'s are just insane:

Fairfax: 68%
Arlington: 80%
Alexandria: 78%
Loudoun: 60%
Prince William: 61%
Albemarle: 64%
Henrico: 60%
Chesterfield: 49% (!!!)

Hell even Stafford: 47%

That is a wipeout of epic proportions for the Republican Party. RINO Toms will make excuses saying the demographics of these areas have changed, and that is undoubtedly true. But they haven't changed that much from 2014, where Gillespie did very well in these areas, and they certainly haven't changed that much from 2016, where Trump actually did better than Gillespie did last night in these areas.

This is why I think it's laughable that people have said Hillary Clinton was a "perfect fit" for upscale, (white) college-educated suburbs. Put up a candidate who doesn't inspire massive levels of vitriol and someone who is affable like Ralph Northam, and these areas are ready to vote Democratic big league. Hand-wringing left-wingers need to get the memo too.

[heatcharger]

Fairfax: 68%
Arlington: 80%
Alexandria: 78%
Loudoun: 60%
Prince William: 61%
Albemarle: 64%
Henrico: 60%
Chesterfield: 49% (!!!)

Hell even Stafford: 47%

But aren't several of these counties, particularly Chesterfield which you highlight, heavily Suburban?

Well yes, I was just pointing out that these are historic margins in the VA suburbs for Democrats, and historic lows for Republicans. Every county I listed there (excluding Arlington and Alexandria, which are hardly counties) were Bush 2000 counties. That's hard to fathom at this point.

[heatcharger]

Any chance Democrats could make a deal to flip a Republican Senator?

Well Assad-admirer Dick Black probably can't be convinced of anything, and the only other Clinton-won Senate district is held by Frank Wagner of all people. A deal to flip someone might be unlikely, but maybe one of them can be convinced to get on board with Medicaid expansion, redistricting, and other pieces of the Democratic agenda.

[heatcharger]

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HD-40 might have flipped back

Is that the net gain for Hugo? Tanner was up 68 before this.

[heatcharger]

Oh, crap, that might be enough to flip it if Tanner didn't pick up anything, which I doubt. Have absentees been counted yet?

Yes absentees have been counted, but provisionals from the 6 Prince William precincts have not been reported. And I don't know how many Tanner gained from provisionals in Fairfax County.

[heatcharger]

There is a reasonable chance here that Democrats could be in control for a long time if a lot of things go right, and I don't think they would even need to gerrymander the HoD map.

We don't need to do an aggressive Dem gerrymander, but Democrats won the HoD PV by 9% and still only got to 50-50. A lot of that can be chalked up to uncontested races, but we have to protect ourselves here.

[heatcharger]

Tidbit I noticed in the exit polls: 37% of the electorate are married men and 30% were married women. So that means 7% of the voters (at least) were married men whose wives didn't vote? Is that a normal thing? It just sounds a little odd to me. Like, "bye, honey I'm off to vote, watch the kids!" ?

VA men are increasingly marrying women from D.C. and Maryland.

I just made that up, but I don't know how else to explain that discrepancy. Exit polls are often flawed though.

[heatcharger]

VPAP has the gubernatorial race by State House districts up. Nothing too surprising here; Northam outperformed Democratic HoD candidates by 5-10 points about everywhere in NoVA, RVA, and VA Beach.

[heatcharger]

VPAP has the gubernatorial race by State House districts up. Nothing too surprising here; Northam outperformed Democratic HoD candidates by 5-10 points about everywhere in NoVA, RVA, and VA Beach.

How many seats did Northam win?

He appears to have won 58/100 districts.

[heatcharger]

Has a Dem ever carried Chesterfield in a statewide race before this?

In the post-Nixon era Virginia, Northam in 2013 when he won statewide by 12%; Mark Warner in 2008, when he won statewide by 32%; Chuck Robb in 1988, when he won statewide by 41%; Mary Sue Terry in 1985 and 1989 when she won statewide by 23% and 27% respectively.

[heatcharger]

The last time a Democratic candidate for governor won Chesterfield must've been 1961?

And he was a segregationist. Totally different party back then.

[heatcharger]

Warner isn't likely to retire in 2020. He's having too much fun with the Russia investigation.

Perriello should hope to get a cushy spot in the next Democratic administration and either wait for a more favorable Charlottesville district or hope Kaine retires in 2024.

[heatcharger]

VPAP has the gubernatorial race by state senate district.

Northam won 24 state senate districts out of 40, including 3 Trump-won districts.

[heatcharger]

cool

[heatcharger]

The ideal Democratic coalition is cities+countryside vs suburbs, not cities+suburbs vs countryside.

Uhhh why exactly? Political geography isn't the same in every country you know, and nor would that be ideal.

[heatcharger]

The ideal Democratic coalition is cities+countryside vs suburbs, not cities+suburbs vs countryside.

Uhhh why exactly? Political geography isn't the same in every country you know, and nor would that be ideal.

Because left-wing parties ought to stand with poor people, and American suburbs are overwhelmingly wealthy.

Indeed, that shouldn't be the same in every country. In Europe where a good part of the suburbs are working-class, these places should vote to the left.

Rural America is not nearly as uniformly poor as you suggest, and a lot of those salt-of-the-earth real Americans just don't want to stand side-by-side with other less well-off people. I don't know why this hasn't hit you yet.

[heatcharger]

I mean yeah, most progressives whining about this weren't old enough to remember when Obama burned through all his political capital on healthcare and then lost 63 seats in the House. Northam isn't even in that advantageous a position either.

[heatcharger]

I mean yeah, most progressives whining about this weren't old enough to remember when Obama burned through all his political capital on healthcare and then lost 63 seats in the House. Northam isn't even in that advantageous a position either.

tbqh, it's him backing off from trying to flip the legislature that bothers me. The Medicaid issue makes sense to me from a pragmatic standpoint, even if I think he should have said things differently.

I'm fairly confident he tried -- weren't there some stories about him interviewing some Republicans for his cabinet? GOP leadership probably did everything in their power to make sure nobody jumps off the sinking ship.

Anyway a straight up expansion with little-to-no strings attached like what happened in NY and CA would require significant tax increases considering our balanced budget amendment. I guarantee you 2019 won't be so friendly to Democrats if that weren't implemented perfectly.