2020: Trump 2016 in rural areas with Bush 2004 in cities and suburbs? (user search)
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  2020: Trump 2016 in rural areas with Bush 2004 in cities and suburbs? (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020: Trump 2016 in rural areas with Bush 2004 in cities and suburbs?  (Read 1441 times)
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,574
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« on: January 15, 2017, 01:33:36 AM »

This map is absurd obviously, mostly because of this:

As to the point of this thread, while it is fascinating to think about, Bush 2004 in the cities and inner suburbs are not coming back. Those 2/3 Republican majorities in places like Gwinnett and Cobb in the Atlanta burbs aren't coming back. Orange County, CA is likely gone given demographics, but we should probably wait for 2018 and 2020 before we can definitively say that. The collar counties of Chicago are not amenable to a Trumpified GOP that embraces white identity politics. Neither is NoVA. Or Orange/Osceola. Or Dallas and Houston. Or metro Denver. Charlotte, NC and Wake County have become way too diverse for the GOP to win in.

Alternatively, Democrats probably aren't going to come roaring back in force in the Demosaur areas of the south and Midwest anytime soon, though the Midwest is probably the most elastic part of the nation.

I could see the WOW counties in Wisconsin swinging his way in a Bush '04-esque year, but probably not by all that much. Perhaps more importantly for his reelection chances, he needs to make sure that turnout doesn't drop off significantly in the areas he won decisively.
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