VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

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Lol, Warner isn't retiring. Nobody wants that either.

Trust me. A LOT of people want that.

(Maybe not Virginians, but you know.)

You're right, we're good actually:

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32% approval from Republicans seems pretty high for such a partisan era. 55% approval from Non-college white voters is also surprisingly good for a Democrat right now.

There are still a fair amount of people in Southwest VA who still think he's 'one of the good ones', and that's because he campaigned there a lot in his '96 Senate campaign and then his following gubernatorial run. It's why he won in 2001 and in 2008 by such a landslide. Unfortunately, in the 2014 political environment, the hatred of Obama combined with Warner's sleepy campaign, they weren't about to vote for him again.

[heatcharger]

Always wondered why Warner won in such a landslide in 2008, even though McCain won the 9th district with 59% of the vote, and McCain was also the first Republican since 1972 to win Buchanan and Dickenson counties. If Periello's the nominee, do you think he would at least slightly over-perform a typical Democrat in VA-09 (SW VA) or even VA-06 (Shenandoah Valley/Piedmont)?

I think Perriello could overperform the 'typical Democrat' in Appalachia, for sure.

How much better though? In my estimation, not all that much. He's not running on the platform and persona he had in 2008-2010, since he's spent most of his political capital consolidating the Sanders base and showing off his relationship with Obama, a figure still deeply hated in that entire region of the country.

And in relation to Northam, I think he'd be trading a slight overperformance in the Western part of the state for potentially underperforming in NoVA and in the Tidewater, which is a net negative for a Democrat.

Pollster that nailed Mt finds perriello up 54/46 & Gillespie Stewart tied 42/41.

Dang.

[heatcharger]

Hampton University did a poll, but it was poorly conducted, in my opinion. McAullife's approval at 60% is awesome though.

I'd honestly rather have Gillespie win the primary, even if Stewart is a slightly easier opponent to defeat. The campaign would devolve into such Trumpian nonsense, and I'd prefer not hear any more about Confederate statues ever again.

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Just voted Northam/Fairfax/Delaney (67th district). Turnout seemed pretty low.

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VA Department of Elections website.

If anyone is wondering how election night reporting usually goes in Virginia:

Chesterfield County usually reports first, with Virginia Beach reporting 5-10 minutes after. Northam will probably have a sizable lead at this point.

Then rural VA starts coming in rather quickly, which I expect Perriello to get large margins in, but I'm not entirely sure whether he'll take the lead at this point.

Richmond, and particularly Northern Virginia, historically take a long time to report, but in a pretty low turnout primary, I expect 95% reporting by 9 PM. We'll see if that's good enough to declare a winner (I suspect it might not be).

Also, I heard Prince William County modernized their return system after 2016, as the precinct results will get sent to the county office digitally, so hopefully that comes in earlier.

[heatcharger]

Anecdotal, but I'm driving around Alexandria right now and there are a ton of Perriello signs, a few Northam signs.

Edit: Also a few Gene Rossi signs.

That's weird because I literally have not seen a single Perriello or Northam sign in my immediate area. The only political yard signs I've seen in my territory of Fairfax Co. have been either Republican or for State Delegate, even at my voting precinct.

[heatcharger]

Gillespie is doing terrible in Chesterfield County lol. It's just a few precincts though.

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Hmm, a few Appalachian counties are voting like they did in the 2016 Dem primary, which was for Clinton by a lot. Let's see if that holds.

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Big dump of votes came out of Virginia Beach, which is why people are saying Northam has this. I want to wait for more of Fairfax to come in before I say he's the winner.

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Decision Desk calls it for Northam.

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Man, for all the "this is definitely Hillary v. Bernie again" talk, it looks like Republicans are gonna come out of this more divided, which is great news. Like I said before though, a campaign against Stewart is highly likely to turn stupid, which is why I'm rooting for a recount with Gillespie coming out on top.

[heatcharger]

It looks like Fairfax County is going to end up saving a Republican, Gillespie's lead is slightly increasing as it comes in.

[heatcharger]

It looks like Fairfax County is going to end up saving a Republican, Gillespie's lead is slightly increasing as it comes in.

PW has yet to report and there's a LOT of rurals left

True, Gillespie is far from out of the woods, but the precincts yet to report in Fairfax should be favorable to him.

[heatcharger]

Uhh Loudoun just went from 90 precincts reporting to 48 on NYT.

Virginia DoE has 93 of 94 precincts reporting out of Loudoun. Northam barely won it as I expected. Gillespie is nursing a 9 vote lead, which is very embarrassing for him.

[heatcharger]

Looks like PW Republicans love their hometown moron. Gillespie leads by 1.4k votes right now after that dump. Still think Fairfax will save him though.

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Another victory for La Resistance

This doesn't make any sense.

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Perriello has been narrowing the margin for a while now, he's up to 45.1% if anyone cares.

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PWC back down to 70% reporting.

Nah.

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Remember when someone posted that a Northam/Perriello recount woukd be perfect for Gillespie?

Maybe we shouldn't listen on bronz on literally anything?

What was the difference between Justin Fairfax and Susan Platt?

Eh, Platt's background as a party operative led her to be more of a fire-breathing anti-Trump progressive, while Fairfax was a U.S. attorney, and he campaigned more on bread-and-butter Democratic issues. Both were good to me, but I voted Fairfax because I think he can win by more.

[heatcharger]

Why did Jill Vogel win NOVA by double digit margins but Gillespie couldn't do the same?

Maybe they're tired of Gillespie but don't have any reason to feel the same way about Vogel.  From what I can tell, Vogel's tried to campaign as some kind of post partisan, inoffensive moderate (though the campaign between her and Reeves has been divisive).

I received 1 mailer from her. It was about how much we needed bathroom police to protect against the menacing transgender rapists one stall over. I voted for the gun guy.

You still voting for Northam in the GE or what

[heatcharger]

Stewart did much better in Fairfax than he should have. I don't see how Gillespie wins in November.

Like I saw some people on Twitter saying, the old moderate Republicans who used to vote in R primaries are now Democrats. This also has the consequence of Trumpists having more power in the nominating process than before.

This result also makes me wonder whether Comstock would even win a Republican Senate primary next year. Good stuff.

[heatcharger]

Well, this result surprised me, to say the least. I don't usually Chicken Little about my supported candidates, but I was getting the feeling Perriello's campaign was firing the base up in Fairfax, while Northam's milquetoast nature didn't allow for such a thing. Luckily, my fellow neoliberal establishment moderate centrists showed up big league anyway.

As for Perriello, fair play to him. He ran a clean and constructive campaign and showed how a good Democratic primary should go, by challenging the opponent to be better without tearing them down. It's refreshing to know there are progressives who have long-term visions like him, and I think he'll get another chance at this eventually. Hopefully his supporters follow his lead and show up to throw out HoD Republicans as well this November.

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Stewart's refusing to concede.

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60% of voters tonight pulled a Democratic ballot: interesting. What did it look like four years ago?

No real comparison to be had since the GOP had a convention in 2013 while McAullife was the only Dem running.

Also, could someone (maybe Adam) make a Sanders-Perriello swing map?