New poll hype thread

[heatcharger]

Looks like Harry lied to us

Yeah I think they only polled favorability and debate questions... what a waste.

It doesn't appear that NBC or CNN are releasing polls either. Sad day.

[heatcharger]

Monmouth Polling Director:

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[heatcharger]

So... where is the TN poll?

It's in the field all week.  They wanted to see if there would be a significant change after the debate. So, it's a 2-week poll, last week and this.

So is Vanderbilt just trying to troll ExtremeRepublican and TNVol? I mean they'd be better served going east or south and polling NC or GA instead but what are they waiting for right now lol.

[heatcharger]

My guesses:

CO: C+9 / B+11

FL: C+3 / R+3
OH: T+1 / P+12
PA: C+8 / M+2
NC: C+2 / B+1 / C+5

[heatcharger]

A new CBS News national poll will be out in 20 minutes or so.

I'll guess Clinton +5.

Also PPP is asking which state to poll this week, and the options are Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, or Wisconsin: https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/783067317055975424

[heatcharger]

New Marquette poll coming out Wednesday... next Wednesday, October 12th. Not much point in making guesses this far out, although you'd think the bounce would spread to Wisconsin as well.

[heatcharger]

Finally Selzer is polling Iowa... considering they had Trump up bigly in the Iowa Caucus, I'll say Trump +2.

[heatcharger]

Tomorrow:

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This probably isn't going to capture, whatever you want to call this current scandal, so I'll guess:

OH: Clinton +4, Portman +12
PA: Clinton +8, McGinty +4
WI: Clinton +8, Feingold +11

[heatcharger]

Monmouth is releasing "red state" polls starting tomorrow. Hopefully Utah is in that mix.

[heatcharger]

Monmouth will be releasing a poll of Utah later this afternoon.

Hopefully this will be very interesting. I'll guess:

Trump 30
Clinton 26
McMuffin 21
Johnson 13

[heatcharger]

PPP teases that they have a Florida poll coming within the next hour.

Edit: It's a 7-8 on their Dem happiness scale.

I'll guess Clinton +4 and Little Marco +5.

[heatcharger]

CBS/YouGov has two state polls coming out tomorrow, from Nevada and Utah. I'll guess:

NV: Clinton +4 , Cortez-Masto +2
UT: Trump 31 - Clinton 27 - McMuffin 24

[heatcharger]

A new Monmouth national poll will be released on Monday.

I'll guess Clinton +8.

[heatcharger]

Following amdcpus's lead, I currently have a one-question Google Consumer Survey South Dakota out in the field.  

The question I asked was: If the presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?
The choices are: (randomized) Donald Trump of the Republican Party, Hillary Clinton of the Democratic Party, Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party, Darrell Castle of the Constitution Party and "I am not registered to vote in South Dakota" (always last).  According to Balletopedia, those are the only 4 candidates actually on the ballot in SD.  Stein didn't make the cut.  

I added the not registered to vote option to make it more like a RV poll (of course, it's technically not, and it's impossible to ferret out RV/LV when you only get one question) and to try to weed out non-South Dakotans with a South Dakota IP address.  I didn't include Undecided because, as I understand it, those who are can skip the question in GCS, anyway.

I have to figure out how to weigh the sample by age.  Google weighs by age of the Internet population, which skews younger than RVs.  There was no 2012 exit poll for SD, so I have to use something else (probably Census estimates of 2012 turnout or RVs).  Any thoughts on that would be appreciated.

That's actually pretty cool. How much did that cost you?

I have an excel sheet I made to weight the numbers and a turnout by age doc I can give you.

Do you work for a polling firm or something? You don't have to say which, but I'm curious.

[heatcharger]

WBUR is releasing, gasp, a Massachusetts pres poll tomorrow.

Meh

There are important things on the ballot in MA.

This, and I like seeing how much of a spanking Schilling would get in a hypothetical matchup with Warren.

[heatcharger]

Sam Stein ‏@samsteinhp  16s17 seconds ago
CBS releasing a battleground poll from Texas on Sunday. so, yes, Texas is a battleground. And we will have a clearer sense of how close

Considering they had Trump up 17 in Utah, I don't have very high expectations. I'll guess Trump +8.

[heatcharger]

In addition to that Texas poll, YouGov is also releasing a Florida poll tomorrow.

[heatcharger]

CNN's probably due for a national poll, and I've noticed they like releasing them Monday morning or afternoon usually. Not that I care of course, because CNN desperately wants one last "Race between Clinton and Trump tightens significantly" narrative.

[heatcharger]

CNN: Clinton +9 among RV, Clinton +2 among LV
Upshot/Siena poll of NC: Clinton +3, Cooper +2, Burr +1

[heatcharger]

My guesses:

PA Upshot poll: Clinton +9, McGinty +4
NV Marist poll: Clinton +5, CCM +2
NH Marist poll: Clinton +6, Ayotte +1, Van Ostern +3
TX UT-Austin poll: Trump +5

[heatcharger]

Georgia: Trump+6
Iowa: Trump+5
North Carolina: TIE
Virginia: Clinton+7

"RACE TIGHTENS, PUSSY DEMOCRATS PISS THEMSELVES AND COMMIT SEPPUKU EN MASSE!!!!!" will be the headline here later today. Yet, there's no reason to panic.

Yup, sounds about right.

For the senate I'll guess Isakson +15, Grassley +14, and Burr +7.

[heatcharger]

CBS/YouGov will have battleground polls from PA, CO, NC and AZ tomorrow on Face the Nation

Hopefully they actually poll the senate races in these states. I'll guess:

PA: C+7, M+3
CO: C+7, B+12
NC: C+3, B+1
AZ: T+5, M+9

[heatcharger]

NBC/WSJ/Marist is releasing FL and NC numbers at 9. I'll guess:

FL: Clinton +1, Rubio +5
NC: Clinton +2, Burr +2, Cooper +2

[heatcharger]

I'll guess Trump +8, Blunt +2, Koster +4.

[heatcharger]

I'll guess Clinton +7/+8 and Feingold +8.