CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Mike Thick]

Kounalakis is especially bizarre because the vast majority of Lt. Govs have either used or attempted to use the job as a stepping stone to higher office. You wouldn't think she would want the job if she wasn't angling for Governor or something. But it just isn't happening.

[Mike Thick]

Faulconer breaks $1mil raised as the recall goes over 1.3 million signatures. LA Times has a story about Democrats sensing which way things are going & getting out in front by seeking to DISAVOW.

Michael Trujillo, a Democratic strategist who has helped run campaigns for former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, said it’s accurate for the governor to brand the recall backers as highly partisan, or some as extremists. But he said that message is undercut when the left is voicing criticism too.

“I think a lot of rank-and-file Democrats see Gavin Newsom as a combination of Charlie Brown and Lucy, where he wants to kick the football but he pulls it out himself before he can do it,” Trujillo said.

This is it, I think. Gavin has undercut himself a lot over the past two years:
 - Signed AB5 so he didn’t piss off unions, and then stood by while it got gutted so he didn’t piss off the tech companies
 - Somehow managed to make restrictions both unjustifiably strict for some people at some times, which made business owners mad, and unjustifiably lenient for other people at others, which made the left mad
 - Has a pisspoor relationship with the legislature, hasn’t tried to seriously engage with them on any significant non-budgetary stuff, and seems chronically incapable of fixing this no matter how many staffing overhauls he tries

This is the problem with being chronically risk-averse because you want to run for President. If you never stick your neck out for anyone, nobody will stick their neck out for you. That’s what’s happening here.

[Mike Thick]

Are any Democrats considering a run? I think Newsom may be vulnerable in a D vs. D runoff if there's a serious Dem challenger.

If he looks vulnerable, at least one serious Dem will run just in case.

Worth noting that the recall still works the same way it did in 2003: one vote on the recall, and simultaneous vote on who should replace Newsom if he gets recalled. The second vote will have all candidates of all parties on the same ballot, like a primary. Unlike normally, though, the election is FPTP -- the person who gets the most votes in that round wins, even if they don't have a majority.

[Mike Thick]

I don’t see either Republican totally breaking away from the other, frankly. But I’ve been surprised before.

[Mike Thick]

I'm frankly ambivalent on the recall. I don't like Gavin, which should be obvious if you've read anything else I've said in this thread. Blairite said it pretty well: we need someone who's going to at least take a potshot at solving CA's problems. I think we would have decent odds of replacing him with a better Democrat in a recall.

OTOH I'm worried that for better or worse, Dem fortunes are tied to him at this point, and spending months litigating all his issues is gonna hurt. Even if he wins, the difference between a D+25 and a D+15 environment heading into 2022 is potentially massive for legislative races.

[Mike Thick]

The troops are rallying, folks

https://twitter.com/Steve_Glazer/status/1359213158569709570?s=20

[Mike Thick]

The troops are rallying, folks

/tweet

They've been rallying all week, folks

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-02-09/president-biden-opposes-recall-effort-gavin-newsom

I mean, this was one day before the Glazer video but point taken

[Mike Thick]

Grenell is in.

https://twitter.com/jeremybwhite/status/1360381761012658178?s=21

[Mike Thick]

CA is also more Democratic now than in 2003, and the Republican field will be more split.

Flip side is that even as we’re closing in on the signatures, increasingly clear that without some kind of black swan event the actual recall will fail. That means no Bustamante-tier (lol) Democrats are likely to even bother

[Mike Thick]

Trump is considering getting involved in the recall effort.

Presumably he would endorse Grenell. Would probably guarantee Newsom surviving and permanuke Faulconer's career at the same time.

[Mike Thick]

Are Democrats outside of the Bay Area that disorganized that they can't stop the San Francisco Clan from winning everything?

It's more to do with regional unity than organization. The Bay Area has higher turnout than most other regions & they're more-or-less on the same page politically.

In the case of something like Southern California, it's a much more fragmented net to cast and they're not exactly enthusiastic to turnout either. There's a wide gap between LA City Democrats & LA County Democrats, let alone those in OC, San Diego, Ventura, Inland Empire, etc.

Just look at the 2018 primary with with 'northerner' Newsom & 'southerner' Villaraigosa. The latter couldn't even win the city he was mayor of, whereas Newsom was winning some greater bay area counties 5 to 1

The Bay has been solidly Democratic for like decades now. Contrast that with most of the L.A. area and San Diego, which only started giving Dems huge numbers in the 90's and 2000's. Huge huge head start on organization.

As for the Republicans: they're going to be split three ways between Cox, Grenell, and Faulconer. There is no "invisible primary" here. They are going to beat each other to death.

[Mike Thick]

So now that Becerra’s confirmed, it’s time for Gavin to pick his replacement. Some names that have been floating around:
 - Rep. Adam Schiff
 - State Assemblyman Rob Bonta
 - Sacramento Mayor Darrell Steinberg
 - State Sen. Anna Caballero

[Mike Thick]

Schiff is an awesome guy, but don't take any more House members out. Democrats already lost Haaland, Fudge and Richmond, which is currently just a 219-211 majority until the special election take place. From briefly checking the candidates, I think Bonta is a good choice.

I'm in for Bonta too honestly. Fits the moment and he could potentially be Gov one day

[Mike Thick]

Lolololololololololol

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1374562153139728387?s=20

[Mike Thick]

He’s not the worst option out there. But that’s more a function of CADems having so many terrible people than him actually being good.

Friendly reminder that he forced FOs to work 90 hours a week for his climate org that was secretly a proto-2020-campaign.

[Mike Thick]

I really hate to do this, but it sounds like we should watch the news tomorrow in regards to Gavin. My friend working in the Capitol won’t say anything further, but it doesn’t sound good.

Some of the reporters I follow on Twitter say this is made up, and the article doesn’t exist. But if something bad is floating around out there, probably gets picked up soon

[Mike Thick]

I have no idea what the article is lol. The twitterer in question was actually an in-the-know Sac person rather than a reporter

https://twitter.com/samanthacorbin/status/1374802357037408257?s=21

[Mike Thick]

Lol what SoCal Assemblymen (assuming they’re men) have the juice to try something like this

[Mike Thick]

Aight its investigation time

[Mike Thick]

Lol what SoCal Assemblymen (assuming they’re men) have the juice to try something like this

She used "he" pronouns, said "a couple" more than once, and said they took the plane with her, at least once. If anyone could figure it out based off that, please, have at it.

You know what, I’m gonna play this. So Assemblywoman Martinez Valladares lives in Santa Clarita, so I’m guessing she’d be using either LAX or perhaps more likely, Burbank.

Chris Holden, Adrin Nazarian, and Ed Chau are my prime suspects. They’ve all been in office since 2012. The first two would be especially likely to use Burbank.

Looking online, Chris Holden has specifically said he opposes the recall. Nazarian and Chau have both praised Newsom really highly on social media recently. Obv that doesn't rule out a No On Recall, Yes On Bustamante situation, but given how this is breaking down on pro-and-anti-Newsom lines, might suggest something.

So far (halfway through the 20 SoCal Dem Assemblymen) the most likely person is Richard Bloom of Santa Monica.

[Mike Thick]

I think you guys are reading a little too much into the airport thing? Like, the vast majority of people just use LAX regardless of traffic.

I ruled out people who oppose the recall or recently praised Newsom publicly, and people who are currently in their first term in the Assembly. I got this list:

Richard Bloom
Freddie Rodriguez
Eduardo Garcia
Tom Daly

Rodriguez and Garcia both endorsed Villa in 2018, for what that's worth. Daly isn't on social media so I couldn't really pin him down.

EDIT: Bloom stated opposition to the recall and praised Newsom in this piece. So we can rule him out.

EDIT2: Forgot to put Al Muratsuchi on the list.

[Mike Thick]

Elsewhere in that piece: VILLA and Steyer are the main two Dems being watched to jump in.

[Mike Thick]

I’m honestly kind of underwhelmed? Like I thought this was going to be “Gavin groped a staffer” or “Gavin made up the metrics he used to reopen the state early”

[Mike Thick]

Seems like the BIG REVELATION was the affair thing. Any Democrat who's smart, especially Villa, is going to hold their fire until closer to the election when we can see if Gavin is touchable or not.

[Mike Thick]

Seems like the BIG REVELATION was the affair thing. Any Democrat who's smart, especially Villa, is going to hold their fire until closer to the election when we can see if Gavin is touchable or not.

The only outlet I saw bring up the story was that Cerritos one. And is there a deadline for when replacement candidates can qualify for the recall? I guess it depends when the recall qualifies, but doesn't it have to be voted on in like 120 days?

Basically what I gather is that somewhere in the grand Sacramento game of telephone, someone misinterpreted “Los Cerritos Times” or whatever as something slightly different, which wasn’t an actual outlet but also wasn’t debunkable as a hack outlet. And this led to the rumor mill spinning out of control.

No idea when people have to qualify for the recall and I’m too tired to look it up