2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Mike Thick]

Antonio Sabato Jr. is challenging my Congresswoman, Julia Brownley.

Since the bench here is so thin, and he has a famous name/decent personal wealth, I think he may actually be one of the strongest possible recruits. His friendliness with the Trump White House has the potential to be a blessing or a curse, depending on how he plays his hand, but this is going to be a fun race to watch.

EDIT: He's said that Obama is a Muslim, and seems to be fairly hardline on immigration -- probably not great things in this particular district

[Mike Thick]

Antonio Sabato Jr. is challenging my Congresswoman, Julia Brownley.

Since the bench here is so thin, and he has a famous name/decent personal wealth, I think he may actually be one of the strongest possible recruits. His friendliness with the Trump White House has the potential to be a blessing or a curse, depending on how he plays his hand, but this is going to be a fun race to watch.

EDIT: He's said that Obama is a Muslim, and seems to be fairly hardline on immigration -- probably not great things in this particular district

Also, this district voted for Clinton by 22 points over Trump - considering his entire political career has been as a barnacle on the Trump train (mixed metaphor, I know), I doubt he's going to give Brownley a run.

When most Americans think "Antonio Sabato Jr," their minds go to his filmography rather than his more outlandish statements. That's probably the only thing that can save him. :/

Brownley won her 2014 race in large part by successfully defining her opponent as a Tea Partying radical, and he wasn't half the target that Sabato is. If she can do the same this time (and early reports make it seem like his campaign strategy will make this easy for her) she should be fine.

[Mike Thick]

Antonio Sabato Jr. is challenging my Congresswoman, Julia Brownley.

Since the bench here is so thin, and he has a famous name/decent personal wealth, I think he may actually be one of the strongest possible recruits. His friendliness with the Trump White House has the potential to be a blessing or a curse, depending on how he plays his hand, but this is going to be a fun race to watch.

EDIT: He's said that Obama is a Muslim, and seems to be fairly hardline on immigration -- probably not great things in this particular district

Also, this district voted for Clinton by 22 points over Trump - considering his entire political career has been as a barnacle on the Trump train (mixed metaphor, I know), I doubt he's going to give Brownley a run.

When most Americans think "Antonio Sabato Jr," their minds go to his filmography rather than his more outlandish statements. That's probably the only thing that can save him. :/

Brownley won her 2014 race in large part by successfully defining her opponent as a Tea Partying radical, and he wasn't half the target that Sabato is. If she can do the same this time (and early reports make it seem like his campaign strategy will make this easy for her) she should be fine.

most americans don't think about "Antonio Sabato Jr". He's not even the most prominent flop celebrity to back Trump - Scott Baeo is.

This is true, but the point is that most of the name recognition that he has is separate from the crazy stuff he's said.

[Mike Thick]

Antonio Sabato Jr. is challenging my Congresswoman, Julia Brownley.

Since the bench here is so thin, and he has a famous name/decent personal wealth, I think he may actually be one of the strongest possible recruits. His friendliness with the Trump White House has the potential to be a blessing or a curse, depending on how he plays his hand, but this is going to be a fun race to watch.

EDIT: He's said that Obama is a Muslim, and seems to be fairly hardline on immigration -- probably not great things in this particular district

This won't be even a serious contest. Brownley won by a 20 point margin last year while Hillary garnered a 22 point win here. The climate right now is cold for Republicans as well to run in districts like CA-26 in the era of Trump as well.

News at 11.

Last cycle was basically the perfect storm for Republicans to crash in this district: a Republican Presidential nominee who was anathema to both Latinos and suburban whites, no Senate candidate, and an unfunded nobody as the Republican Congressional candidate. Two years earlier, Brownley only narrowly defeated her Republican opponent.

I think that a Republican could win in the ideal climate. However, I don't think 2018 is likely to be that climate, Brownley is a near-perfect fit for the district, and the more I read about Sabato, the less I think he's even close to being that Republican.

However, it should still be interesting, if only for the fact that Sabato is an... interesting... guy

[Mike Thick]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Saw the last name, thought it was Weird Al. Was disappointed.

[Mike Thick]

Dem internal poll has Ed Royce in CA-39 up 48-44. https://www.scribd.com/document/367450908/CA-39-Tulchin-Research-for-Gil-Cisneros-Nov-2017

It's been clear for a while that Royce is in a much better position than Issa/Rohrabacher.

[Mike Thick]

Don’t want to be a buzzkill, but Didier is a Republican — it was an R vs. R general.

Other than that... gahdayum. If the maps were even close to fair, we would be gaining an even more insanely high number of seats.

[Mike Thick]

I can't find the article but apparently Paul Davis in KS-02 is out raising his GOP opponent who is a state senator who jumped in atvtheclastvsection cause all the big names passed and he's run on the platform of "stop a democrat from winning this seat". So dems could pick up 2 house seats in Kansas next years

I would even say that KS-02 is more likely than to flip KS-03 at this point. Amazing how much candidate quality alone can affect these things.

[Mike Thick]

Cuomo didn't have a credible candidate in 2014 either and he managed to take only 51% of the vote.

Actually, he won 54-40. Not a terrific margin for a NY Democrat, but not exactly scraping by either.

[Mike Thick]

Senator-elect Sinema

Isn’t he just going to split the crazy person vote with Ward and let McSally sneak through?

[Mike Thick]

Friendly reminder that Democrats need to win the generic ballot by upper single digits to even think about flipping the House. 8-9 points is good, but dangerously close to the threshold most analysts are using

[Mike Thick]

Friendly reminder that Democrats need to win the generic ballot by upper single digits to even think about flipping the House. 8-9 points is good, but dangerously close to the threshold most analysts are using

Harry Enten and Dave Wasserman think there's a very good chance it could be as low a threshold as 4-5.

That’s good. G. Elliott Morris is using a threshold of 8ish, though, IIRC

[Mike Thick]

Weinzapfel

Gesundheit