Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Mike Thick]

I'm increasingly thinking that Estes pulls this one out, but the fact that it's this close is terrifying.

[Mike Thick]

It's over.

No it's not. Thompson still has a substantial lead in Sedgwick. It's only over if that county narrows substantially.

And our assumptions are based on Sedgwick narrowing substantially

[Mike Thick]

Estes pulling away now

[Mike Thick]

I'm no Trumpite, but as someone earlier said, Thompson localized the race and tried to turn it into a referendum on Brownback. Because of this, and Estes's virtually nonexistent campaign, this is probably not a great barometer for the political climate.

I think GA-06 will be a much better indicator of the national mood.

[Mike Thick]

It's pretty remarkable that the circular firing squad in #KS04 tonight is being convened by the party that over performed by 20 points
https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/851982885292830722


@Ted Bessell: Sure but if estes's campaign is non-existent, so is the national support of the DNC, while the RNC used the big guns in the last days.

I suppose, but the absence of a strong Democratic campaign isn't as much of a departure from the norm as the absence of a strong Republican one. My point is that there are circumstances other than Trump leading to Estes's underperformance.

[Mike Thick]

There was a poll showing Kennedy +21. Right now it's Jones +47. Just wow.

It makes sense -- people who don't know anything about the race are going to support a guy with a famous name, but those who actually go out to vote in these special elections are going to be somewhat more familiar with the candidates.

[Mike Thick]

I'm hoping that someone pinches me, and I wake up to a world where American politics is sane