United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Joe Republic]

What happened in 1993 to cause the Lib Dems to briefly push the Tories into third place?

[Joe Republic]

Sunak will be the fourth consecutive 'incumbent PM to lose a GE' who was previously a Chancellor of the Exchequer.

The last incumbent PM with Chancellor on his resumé to win all of his general elections was Harold Macmillan.

[Joe Republic]

Wasn’t Redwood the main alternative

Seems like Redwood was even being described as the candidate of the Tory Right

Yes, but if Major hadn't won a decisive enough victory* in the first round of voting, he intended to withdraw.  The scenario is that Heseltine would have entered in a second round and beaten Redwood.

This is pretty much what happened in 1990.  Thatcher beat Heseltine in the first round, but not decisively enough.  So she withdrew, then Major entered the second round and beat Heseltine instead.


* He set a personal goal of 215 votes.  He ended up exceeding that goal by only 3.

[Joe Republic]

Differing opinions on election date in the media today

Times: Sunak tempted to go for broke with summer election
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sunak-tempted-to-go-for-broke-with-a-summer-election-fzkdnx5j3

FT: Hunt to cut 2p of NI in Autumn Statement (suggesting October 17)
https://www.ft.com/content/4972e747-1297-4f81-8162-0b4d0d68c9af

Metro: With nothing left to lose either way, Sunak might call it as early as June.
https://metro.co.uk/2024/04/20/rishi-sunak-has-nothing-left-lose-may-hold-election-early-june-20685077/

[Joe Republic]

As if anybody needed reminding, but the "second half of 2024" is by definition any date after July 1st.

[Joe Republic]

Well great, now my family and friends will be wondering why I'm so distracted from my hot dogs and the fireworks show, while I'm furiously refreshing my phone browser waiting for the returning officer for Harpenden South East to arrive on a small stage 5,000 miles away.

[Joe Republic]

Happy 4th of July (UK)

Happy Inept Pedants Day!

[Joe Republic]

Given that everyone knew the election was coming in the next few months no matter what, how come there is still a mad scramble among the major parties to find candidates for numerous seats?  Was five years not enough notice?

[Joe Republic]

Is it correct that there's pretty much no "lame duck" in the UK, ergo Starmer could be PM by the noon of July 5?

Correct.  Unless there are hung parliament negotiations (lol), Sunak will visit the King the day after the election, and then Starmer will be summoned shortly afterward.

[Joe Republic]

Why pick our Independence Day -of all days in the calendar- as the day of the UK parliamentary election?  Did Sunak pick it on a whim or something? 

Our presidential election this year is scheduled to take place on Bonfire Night, which is the closest equivalent that the UK has to our Independence Day.  I think it's a fair cultural exchange.

[Joe Republic]

https://twitter.com/DachshundColin/status/1793973478758195310

I wonder where to next on the National Metaphor Tour.  Given the oncoming devastating landslide about to engulf him… perhaps Aberfan?

[Joe Republic]

On a practical note if let say the Conservatives are missing 200 candidates, that would impact their popular vote share as they would be leaving 1/3rd of the seats uncontested.

Also the few conservatives might vote LD or Reform in the abscence of a Conservative candidate.

That is very much not going to happen.

[Joe Republic]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1793975180143775920

Those numbers. Can't breach 10% amongst under 40's (they got 24% amongst that age group in 1997)

It's extinction level.

"Sir, we seem to be polling only 8% among 18-24 year olds."

"Good lord, that's awful.  What policy ideas do we have to change that…?"

*quiet voice from the back of the room* "Ahem.  I may have an idea…"

[Joe Republic]

In today's summary a sitting Minister has called the Conservatives flagship policy terrible, CCHQ has accidently called their own MPs lazy and revealed they lack funding & a Tory MP has had the whip removed for endorsing reform.

Labour once again just need to stand still.

Napoleon had a quote for this precise situation.

[Joe Republic]

It’s heartening how many people seem to have already ruled the Tories out on the doors. It’ll be hard for them to get them back if Reform run even a vaguely competent campaign.

What proportion of the doors you knocked on said they were voting Tory?  And… uh… why??

[Joe Republic]

In terms of desperate, poorly thought out policy proposals, this fake ad from a few years ago is starting to look closer to reality:

[Joe Republic]

Vacant GAIN +650

What's the swing % on that result?

[Joe Republic]

The Telegraph… less so.

...what in God's name is that even supposed to mean

This woman's previous editorial was titled "Noisy minorities are being allowed to bully the rest of us into silence". 😬

[Joe Republic]

Rishi is currently campaigning at the Henley Regatta and being photobombed by Lib Dem rowers. Hilariously out of touch but if the Tories are this worried about Henley publicly... where on earth will they be sending the cabinet? Castle Point?

Between Windermere and Henley, the Liberal Democrat Tactical Naval Assault Strike Force continues its highly effective campaign of terror.

[Joe Republic]

Have a feeling Farage will get in this time

why?

Clacton is the only seat to have ever (re-)elected a UKIP MP.

[Joe Republic]

The Tories are now short yet another candidate at the last minute, in a seat they are hopelessly defending:

A Conservative candidate has withdrawn from the general election over "wholly inappropriate" comments he posted on a website.

Sam Trask, who was standing in Bridgend, made sexually crude posts about women to the myfitnesspal website, according to The Mirror.

[Joe Republic]

The nomination deadline is tomorrow, right? Anyone have updates on how many Tory, LD, Reform and Green candidates are missing? Are the SNP or Plaid missing any candidates? I know Labour has a full slate nominated.

How many candidates do the parties still need?

We don't know, exactly. There's no official list until close of nominations, and some parties are better than others at telling us about selections. However:

- Labour have a full slate (excluding Chorley and NI).
- The English and Welsh Greens have 7 constituencies with a "TBC" on their list. At least some of these previously had a named candidate. I don't think the Scottish Greens normally have a full slate.
- The Conservatives don't have a centralised list that I know of, but have 545 candidates listed on Owain Sutton's spreadsheet, so appear to be short by about 86. (The spreadsheet doesn't include NI, and they won't stand in Chorley, so the target is 631.) But it's possible that some candidates have in fact been selected and they just haven't told anyone.
- The Lib Dems have 559 candidates on Owain Sutton's spreadsheet, short by 72. I think there are a few selected candidates not on this list.
- Reform UK have 476 candidates on Owain Sutton's spreadsheet, so have some way to go. They do have a webpage with candidate information, but it is rather annoying to use.

[Joe Republic]

The nomination deadline is tomorrow, right? Anyone have updates on how many Tory, LD, Reform and Green candidates are missing? Are the SNP or Plaid missing any candidates? I know Labour has a full slate nominated.

How many candidates do the parties still need?

We don't know, exactly. There's no official list until close of nominations, and some parties are better than others at telling us about selections. However:

- Labour have a full slate (excluding Chorley and NI).
- The English and Welsh Greens have 7 constituencies with a "TBC" on their list. At least some of these previously had a named candidate. I don't think the Scottish Greens normally have a full slate.
- The Conservatives don't have a centralised list that I know of, but have 545 candidates listed on Owain Sutton's spreadsheet, so appear to be short by about 86. (The spreadsheet doesn't include NI, and they won't stand in Chorley, so the target is 631.) But it's possible that some candidates have in fact been selected and they just haven't told anyone.
- The Lib Dems have 559 candidates on Owain Sutton's spreadsheet, short by 72. I think there are a few selected candidates not on this list.
- Reform UK have 476 candidates on Owain Sutton's spreadsheet, so have some way to go. They do have a webpage with candidate information, but it is rather annoying to use.

I just figured there would be updates over the course of today given the timing! But maybe not.

According to that spreadsheet, the Tories are now missing "only" 79 candidates.

Or: 79 opportunities for Seb Payne.

[Joe Republic]

Bizarre seeing hitpieces against a Conservative Party PM in publications like The Daily Mail:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13504037/Disbelief-military-figures-Rishi-Sunak-returned-Normandy-D-Day-events-finished-General-Election-interview-recording-ITV-News.html

And even The Telegraph:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/06/farage-hits-out-sunak-leaving-d-day-commemorations-early/

Does Sunak have ANY friendly press left?

I know that newspaper endorsements the day or so prior to Election Day seem to matter a fair amount in the UK (or do they, still?).  I wonder if the Mail and/or Telegraph break with their routine for this election and back Reform?

[Joe Republic]

I'm curious what a "presidential" campaign means in a UK context. How exactly would the Tory campaign look any different than it is now if they weren't running one? Obviously you need to promote your leader, but would it be more policy-based rather than focusing on Rishi doing lots of appearances and meeting with voters in different constituencies?

Other senior party figures would be more prominent in the campaign, as is the case with e.g. the Labour campaign presently.

Which appears to be the smarter choice, surely, since Starmer isn't winning any charisma/popularity awards himself.  Plus, also unlike 1997, the current Labour leader doesn't appear to have the most obvious next leader already lined up, so it might help to give the incoming Cabinet some broad exposure to the public.