Republican Nevada Caucus results thread (8pm-midnight ET)

[Joe Republic]

Nevada is a western state where the overwhelming majority of the land is owned by the federal government.  You're going to see more anger with the federal government in western states for this reason than you do in places where the federal government doesn't control as much.

Why?

Federal (mis)management of public lands is a huge issue in the west, especially Nevada, where over 80% of the land is federally owned.  It's not an issue in a state like South Carolina, where the federal government owns very little land.  Nevadans don't like the federal government telling them what they can do on federal land with little local input.

You make it sound like it's an issue that most NV Republicans care about, rather than just the rural NV Republicans.

[Joe Republic]

Nevada is a western state where the overwhelming majority of the land is owned by the federal government.  You're going to see more anger with the federal government in western states for this reason than you do in places where the federal government doesn't control as much.

Why?

Federal (mis)management of public lands is a huge issue in the west, especially Nevada, where over 80% of the land is federally owned.  It's not an issue in a state like South Carolina, where the federal government owns very little land.  Nevadans don't like the federal government telling them what they can do on federal land with little local input.

Interesting, thanks. What does the mismanagement exactly entail? Basically allowing people to do almost nothing with it, limiting people's opportunities to make use of the land?

Look up Cliven Bundy.  But as I implied above, don't read too much into federal land ownership as if it's a specific issue that most NV GOPers care about.  You would see similar "angry at the federal government" in any other Western state, I'm sure.  Particularly those with large latino populations.

[Joe Republic]

Interesting, thanks. What does the mismanagement exactly entail? Basically allowing people to do almost nothing with it, limiting people's opportunities to make use of the land?

Mismanagement is in the eye of the beholder.  Environmentalists might be happy that land use is limited to protect certain species like the sage grouse, but the people whose livelihood depends on ranching that land, for example, aren't.  Federal land use policy also tends to limit extraction activity like logging and mining.  And the federal government has been creating national monuments and wilderness areas that put productive uses off of the table altogether. 

When the federal government owns 81% of a state and decisions about land use are made 2,500 miles away in Washington, there are bound to be conflicts and distrust of decisions made in Washington.

Got it, thanks.

LOL.  Okay, I give up, federal land ownership is definitely the top issue among NV Republicans.  Definitely.

[Joe Republic]

Nobody said federal land ownership was the top issue among Nevada Republicans.  But it is an issue, especially once you get outside of Las Vegas.  It is enough of an issue that both the Cruz campaign and a PAC (I think the Club For Growth) was running TV ads about Trump's position on it.  If few Nevadans care about federal land ownership, there would be no reason to make those ads.

You said it's a "huge issue".  It isn't, and the places where it is make up about 10% of the state's overall population.

Are you now saying that the subject matters that candidates choose to talk about in their ads determines the importance of those issues to the voters?

[Joe Republic]

Nobody said federal land ownership was the top issue among Nevada Republicans.  But it is an issue, especially once you get outside of Las Vegas.  It is enough of an issue that both the Cruz campaign and a PAC (I think the Club For Growth) was running TV ads about Trump's position on it.  If few Nevadans care about federal land ownership, there would be no reason to make those ads.

You said it's a "huge issue".  It isn't, and the places where it is make up about 10% of the state's overall population.

Are you now saying that the subject matters that candidates choose to talk about in their ads determines the importance of those issues to the voters?

No.  I'm saying that what candidates choose to talk about in their ads is based on what their internal polling shows to be meaningful to voters.  It wouldn't make sense to run TV ads on issues that voters don't care about.  That would just be wasting money.

Right, candidates have never wasted money going after the wrong message.

But I'm sure this particular issue proved to be #1 in the internal poll they evidently conducted in Eureka county.

Trump himself had the most apt response to the ads; "[Cruz] has an ad, something to do with I want to take away your land and I want to keep it in the federal government, and I don't even know what the hell they're talking about! (crowd laughs) ... I'm saying to myself, well, it's not a subject I know anything about, but it's a hell of an ad!"

Congrats on spending $25m targeting 10% of a state's population, Teddy.

[Joe Republic]

OK, Clark just did a huge batch of votes (over half now in statewide) and, again, Cruz narrowly won it.  Rubio now leads there by about 2 points.  In the last half hour of Clark and Washoe ballots, Cruz has actually led Rubio 1,178 to 1,096.  I still doubt he can pull this off, but...this is fun.

Sounds like rural precincts are coming in.

I really doubt that.  It's been 248 new precincts between the two of them and Cruz still (narrowly) leads these new precincts [edit: or did].  There really aren't many rural precincts in these parts, either.  Keep in mind that Las Vegas basically goes immediately from subdivisions to nothing:

Las Vegas isn't all of Clark county.  I won't argue that there are a lot of rural precincts, but I just listed about fifteen Hills Have Eyes communities in my head, all within Clark county.  They're terrifying, but they're out there.

[Joe Republic]

I'm curious to see to exact results of Las Vegas.

Realisticidealist is our guy for that.

However, keep in mind that Las Vegas proper is only about a quarter of the people living in the metro area.  NLV and Henderson is another quarter, but everybody else in the unincorporated areas still consider themselves to live in Las Vegas anyway.

[Joe Republic]

Trump at 49.14% in Clark with 95% in.  I don't think he'll hit 50%.

[Joe Republic]

Trump at 49.14% in Clark with 95% in.  I don't think he'll hit 50%.

Maybe if he had a Hookers for TRUMP he'd made it.

Within Clark county, where prostitution is illegal?  Well, now I think of it, hookers supporting Trump probably don't care for such details.

[Joe Republic]

BUT...keep in mind, it's Nevada, Las Vegas and all that.  Trump (and whatever he represents) is practically the local economy.  Therefore, this 45% landslide might not be as representative of future primaries/caucuses as it appears...

  Trump's hotel doesn't even have a casino in it.