Will PA be the next Nebraska/Maine?

[Joe Republic]

Would it really be like Nebraska and Maine, or more like the proposed Colorado system?

[Joe Republic]

Not having the 2004 presidential results map by CD yet, here's the one for 2000:



Under the Nebraska/Maine system, the result would have been:
Gore: 13 votes (11 CDs, 2 AL)
Bush: 10 votes

With the Colorado system, Gore would have got 12 votes, Bush 11.

Obviously it would be nice to do a similar analysis using the current 21 EVs for PA, but we'll have to wait for that I guess.

[Joe Republic]

As to the likelihood of this system actually passing, I'd say slim to none.  Whether it ends up like Nebraska/Maine or the failed Colorado proposition, it doesn't matter.

The reason the Colorado system failed was because people didn't want the state to lose its 'swing state' status, which brings lots of attention and money into the state.  This is amplified in PA, where the EV count is more than double, and the result is even closer than CO.

Unlike Nebraska and Maine, Pennsylvania's congressional districts don't tend to vote unanimously for one candidate.  As Phil has said, it's about a 50:50 split, in fact.  Therefore, this system would go the same way as the Colorado system, and fail for the same reasons.

[Joe Republic]

If seen from that perspective, then I expect Rendell would block the motion.  Ultimately, it doesn't really benefit either side very much, as any short-term benefits to one side could easily backfire in the future.

[Joe Republic]

Exactly, reforming states one at a time is a terrible move, as it totally distorts the eventual result.  They should either change the whole system all at once, or not at all.

[Joe Republic]

The idea of PA doing EV's by CD is pretty scary... some of those districts are just vile.

Letting gerrymandering decide who becomes the next President is wrong, wrong, wrong.

Another good reason why this motion is a terrible idea, and will probably fail.  At least Nebraska and Maine, with their tiny supply of districts, are hardly victims of the gerrymandering curse.