Maybe I didn't pay enough attention back there...

[twenty42]

But was was Romney's "47%" comment such a big deal, given it was pretty much a fair assessment of polarization of the electorate?

Edit: yes, looking back I paid very little attention to 2012 as opposed to both 2008 and 2016.

It wasn't that he was totally wrong with what he said, but it is generally considered faux pas to criticize voters during the election season. Same with Hillary's "deplorables" remark. Candidates are supposed to be courting voters, not ostracizing them.

[twenty42]

But in the grand scheme of things, no, it was not a big deal.  Romney was never really within serious striking distance to win.

I don't know about this.

I think 2012 was a closer election in real life than it seems looking back on it historically. A lot of people forget the major polling error...Obama won the popular vote by 3.86% but only led the RCP average by 0.7%. That's a 3.16% discrepancy...which makes the 1.1% discrepancy of 2016 look like small potatoes.

I think Obama's 2012 victory is also distorted by the significant EC advantage that Dems enjoyed that year.  Romney would've had to win the popular vote by almost two points to attain 270 EV's. Contrast that with the 2016 election...Trump attained 306 EV's while losing the popular vote by two points, and a 3.86% Democratic PV victory in 2016 would've attained only 278 EV's.

I do agree that Romney's chances on Election Night 2012 were close to zero, only because of said EC advantage for Obama. I think Romney could've edged Obama in the popular vote if he didn't take his foot off the gas pedal after the first debate, but not enough to take Colorado and the EV.