How does the Republican Party of the future win over minority voters? (user search)
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  How does the Republican Party of the future win over minority voters? (search mode)
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Author Topic: How does the Republican Party of the future win over minority voters?  (Read 2224 times)
twenty42
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« on: May 29, 2017, 07:55:39 PM »

I'm a firm believer that demographics fall in line with election results, not the other way around. We will eventually have a Democratic president who oversees disastrous economic times and/or an unpopular war, and there will be a realignment due to the self-correcting nature of our politics.

I'm not saying this will break the dam, but it will put a hole in it. I don't think Republicans are going to win the black vote all of a sudden, but they could garner 20-25% in the case of a cataclysmic Democratic administration, which would be enough to dramatically change the map.
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twenty42
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« Reply #1 on: May 29, 2017, 09:57:25 PM »

We will eventually have a Democratic president who oversees disastrous economic times and/or an unpopular war, and there will be a realignment due to the self-correcting nature of our politics.

There wasn't a realignment in 2008 when Bush presided over both.

The national popular vote swung Democratic by 9.6 points, and Democrats picked up 113 electoral votes by flipping nine states plus NE-02. That's pretty significant.
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twenty42
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Posts: 861
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« Reply #2 on: May 29, 2017, 10:19:01 PM »

We will eventually have a Democratic president who oversees disastrous economic times and/or an unpopular war, and there will be a realignment due to the self-correcting nature of our politics.

There wasn't a realignment in 2008 when Bush presided over both.

The national popular vote swung Democratic by 9.6 points, and Democrats picked up 113 electoral votes by flipping nine states plus NE-02. That's pretty significant.

That swing largely came from the financial crisis hitting at the right time. McCain and Obama were neck and neck in the polls even with Bush's unpopularity before the crisis hit.

A realignment has lasting effects on both Parties. The new realigning majority coalition usually wins at least 3 consecutive presidential elections, the realigning President performs far better in their reelection bid, and the new majority coalition forces the opposition Party to moderate. The Democrats didn't win a third consecutive term in the WH and Obama performed worse in 2012 than 2008. The Democrats got swept from their own trifecta into a GOP trifecta 8 years later. Plus the Republicans did this by not moderating at all in 2010, 2014, and 2016.

I'd argue that we're still in the Republican alignment era that started in 1980.

My point is that a wave election will encompass all voters involved. Non-white population can keep growing, but margins will self-stabilize in the event of a disastrous Democratic presidency. Black, white or purple, the American public will want change. That will eventualize into minority voters swinging to the right.
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twenty42
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Posts: 861
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« Reply #3 on: May 29, 2017, 10:47:51 PM »

My point is that a wave election will encompass all voters involved. Non-white population can keep growing, but margins will self-stabilize in the event of a disastrous Democratic presidency. Black, white or purple, the American public will want change. That will eventualize into minority voters swinging to the right.

Carter didn't seem to have that effect. Reagan's margins (both times) among African Americans and Hispanics were lackluster given his overall win margins.

The GOP is going to have to change quite a bit to win them over, and their behavior right now is really hurting their future prospects with current minority generations. The only progress they seem to be making is with African American men, and it's hard to separate that from their overall advantage with men in general. My point is that the Republican Party is going to have to work for those voters, and that may entail taking up positions/behaviors that eventually drive away other existing parts of their coalition.

African-Americans and Hispanics were also a much smaller portion of the American electorate in 1980 than they are now.

You also have to remember that pre-1960s blacks will eventually die out and so will the racist past of America. Do you really think that the African-American population of 2050 will have the same attitudes toward racism having grown up in millenial America?
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