Moooooo
nickshepDEM
Junior Chimp
Posts: 6,909
Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 3.65
|
 |
« on: November 02, 2006, 07:38:23 AM » |
|
|
« edited: November 02, 2006, 08:23:19 AM by nickshepDEM »
|
The Sun Poll undersampled Af-American voters and the Post poll oversampled. In 2002 and 1998 there was 21% turnout among African Americans. The Sun poll is assuming 19%. Considering Leggett, Steele, and Brown are on the ballot, one can assume turout will at least be in line with 2002/1998.
The Post poll made the mistake of assuming Af-American turnout willd be 25%, which is probably wrong considering only 24% turned out in the 2004 presidential election. I think it will be somewhere around 21-22%, which obviously benefits O'Malley. Not sure what type of impact it will have on the Steele/Cardin race.
|
