Sam Spade's Final (see p.5) Gubernatorial prediction thread...

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Whats your theory behind Maryalnd?  Are you going strictly by polling?

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Sam, a new Ras poll set to be released tomorrow will show O'Malley up 7.  I believe the last 3-4 polls have shown him with a similar lead and hovering right around 50%.  Do you believe this is his core base?  Im trying to put my figure on a base number for both Ehrlich and O'Malley, but given Ehrlich is a unique candidate and generally does very well with moderate/consertaive 'Reagan Democrats' its hard to judge what his core support # his.  Do you have any ideas?

Also, do you think it is a positive thing for O'Malley that Ehrlich has been running negative attack ads for 2 months straight now and he has yet to make a dent in O'Malley's lead according to Ras' numbers?

Give me your thoughts on this race you ex-Marylader, you....

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Well, first, no poll has showed O'Malley above 47% since early, early in the year, so if he's up towards 48% or 49%, that would be better for him.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/August%202006/marylandGovernor.htm

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Fair analysis.  I actually had very similar numbers in mind.  Now the hard part - figuring out who the undecideds are, why they're undecided, and which way they will break.

O'Malley's strategy lately has been to tie Ehrlich to Bush and Corporate interests.    Given Bush's poor numbers in MD do you think this strategy will work or will it backfire because Bush has nothing to do with this election?

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When you make your predictions do you go strictly by polling or do you take into account political atmosphere in each state, party id advantage, GOTV effort, organization, etc...?

For example, in 2005 some of us were saying Kaine needed to be up in the polls 3, 4, even 5 points to win on election day.  Turned out he was up that much going into the eve of the election and ended up winning by a similar margin.

Im asking becuase Im trying to gauge for sure how the race in MD stands.  The last 3-4 polls show O'Malley +6-8 and right around 50 and Ehrlich in the mid 40's.

Ive also been looking at past polling data lfrom 2004 and 2002.  Almost every poll Ive looked into has underestimated the Democrats final result in MD.  I wonder if this is due to undecideds breaking towards the Democrat or the GOTV operation in MD or possibly even the increase in voter registration fo the dem's...?

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One more thing, I know Garin Hart Yang is a partisan polling firm, but do you have any idea how strong their record is?  Do they tend to show overwhelming Democratic support or are they one of the more accurate partisan pollsters?

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With the rash of Mason-Dixon polls out today, the only major change I would make is to push Rhode Island to Lean R.

A lot of these governor's races are moving closer and closer to the Safe side of the equation rather than otherwise, in my opinion.  I think we will have few highly contested Governor's races on the whole.  Contrast that to the Senate, where the opposite seems to be happening.

You knew it was comming...  What about the M-D Maryland poll?  Change your mind about the race at all?

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Any new thoughts on Maryland?  The Gallup poll seemed a little off at first (53-41 O'Malley), but it seems to have been somewhat validated by the new Rasmussen poll (53-45 O'Malley).  Obviously not enough of a lead to warrant a 'likely-d' designation, but do you think the race has solidified or is there still room and time for Ehrlich to make a comeback?

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You're wrong on MD.  I wont leave a stone unturned tomorrow, we're going to win this thing.

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Predictions aside, Nick, I wish you the best of luck in your activities tomorrow within the campaign and outside the campaign and as always, "May the best man win." 

Thanks, Sam.  I seriously think we're going to win the gubernatorial race.  The feeling on the ground is great.  I know you're an analyst and try not let emotions get in the way, but I feel something in MD that the polls arent reflecting.  O'Malley will win.

See you guys on Wednesday because I'll be out all day tomorrow doing GOTV and then I'll be at the Hippodrome celebrating O'M victory.