From the
LA Times:
They may have just elected the first Hispanic mayor of Los Angeles in 133 years, but the Democratic Party is losing the longer-term battle for Hispanic voters nationwide, argues Republican political consultant Dan Schnur. The trend may have implications for the outcome of the 2008 election.
"Republicans have made unprecedented inroads toward building a solid base among Latino voters," Schnur claims, noting that the 53% support John Kerry received from Hispanic voters in 2004 was sharply down from the 72% achieved by Bill Clinton just eight years previously. "A party that loses nearly a quarter of a core constituency in less than a decade is a party with cause for distress," Shnur believes. "And when that constituency represents the country's fastest growing demographic," Los Angeles' new mayor, Antonio Villaraigosa, has every reason to express the concern that he did.
Schnur identifies four reasons for the shift. First, "Latinos became more conservative economically as they achieved greater prosperity" in recent times. Second, "Latinos serve in the armed forces at much higher levels than any other ethnic or racial group, leading to higher support of the Republican agenda for national security." Third, "there are rising numbers of Latino voters ... who relate to the GOP's platform on issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage." Fourth, despite being characterised by Democrats as xenophobes for their views on immigration, Republicans support a president who proposes a combination of "stiffer penalties for illegal immigrants with provisions for a legal guest-worker program that provides a path to citizenship."
Looking ahead, the likelihood of vacancies in the near future on the US Supreme Court gives President Bush the chance to consider "several Latino Americans as nominees," including Attorney General Alberto Gonzalez.
With the opportunity, therefore, for Republicans to build on progress already made, "that doesn't bode well for Democrats trying to figure out how to fix their broken party," Schnur concludes.
