Odds for each candidate per ballot

[Why]

If Cruz is as unpopular as it is claimed and he will have lots of delegates which he did not pick isn't he in danger of losing some of his delegates as well.

Trump will lose lots of delegates after the first ballot, some which will go to Cruz but some will probably not want Cruz or Trump.

There has to be a real chance that Cruz and Trump will not get a combined 50% on the second ballot. That might mean Kasich/X gets selected or it might pave the way for the rules to be changed so that Kasich/X gets selected on a third ballot.

1 Ballots 50%: Trump 100%
2 Ballots 25%: Cruz 90%, Kasich 5%, X 5%, Trump 0%
3 Ballots 15%: Cruz 60%, Kasich 20%, X 20%
4 Ballots 5%: Cruz 50%, Kasich 20%, X 30%
5 Ballots+ 5%:  X 75%, Cruz 10%, Kasich 10%, deadlock and/or chaos 5%

X could be Ryan, Romney or anybody.