Cruz will control Lousiana delegation despite TRUMP win (user search)
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  Cruz will control Lousiana delegation despite TRUMP win (search mode)
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Author Topic: Cruz will control Lousiana delegation despite TRUMP win  (Read 3848 times)
Why
Unbiased
Jr. Member
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Posts: 612
Australia


« on: March 24, 2016, 07:01:09 PM »

This is only going to effect the 2nd ballot at a contested convention?
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Why
Unbiased
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 612
Australia


« Reply #1 on: March 24, 2016, 09:47:16 PM »

This is only going to effect the 2nd ballot at a contested convention?

No, there are two different things going on here:

1) Cruz recruiting “ninja delegates” among the Trump delegates.  These are people who are pledged to support Trump on the first ballot, but may abandon him if it goes to a second ballot.

2) Cruz recruiting support from unpledged delegates, as well as delegates pledged to candidates who’ve dropped out of the race, who may now be allowed to jump ship even on the first ballot.

Because of the particulars of Louisiana’s delegate selection process, several of their delegates go to the convention unpledged to any candidate.  They can vote for whoever they want on the first ballot.  For Louisiana’s at-large delegates, for example, Erc has this count:

Louisiana Results

At-Large:

Trump 12 - Cruz 11 - Uncommitted 5

Those “uncommitted” delegates can vote for whoever they want, even on the first ballot.  I guess there were also some Rubio delegates at the CD level, because the WSJ article says this:

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In some states, Rubio delegates are pledged to vote for him on the first ballot even if he’s suspended his campaign, but in other states they’re not.


Thank you for your comprehensive summary.

Another question from ignorance.
Do the delegates have to get to the floor of the convention to vote?
What happens if delegates suddenly get food poisoning and have to stay in their rooms celebrating Trumps defeat?
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Why
Unbiased
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 612
Australia


« Reply #2 on: March 24, 2016, 09:54:35 PM »

Cruz will probably be the nominee by literally stealing delegates the same as Paul did in 2012, but on a much larger and more sanctioned scale. These state conventions are going to be hilarious to watch. If the fighting was bad last time, this time it's going to be insane.

Not exactly the same. Paul was trying to steal pledged delegates to vote for Paul on the first ballot. Cruz is infiltrating Trump's pledged delegates but they can't vote for Cruz until the second ballot. So if Trump wins enough pledged delegates all of this stuff will be a moot point.

Cruz is also going after unbound delegates. In theory Cruz could use them to win on a first ballot but he would have to really close the gap with Trump by the convention and go in with close to 1100+.

But going after the unbound is also a defensive move to keep them from Trump. If Trump doesn't get 1237 he is going to be very close.  Cruz' ninjas will mean that Trump is going to lose delegates on the second round, so Trump really needs to win on the first round. The unbound delegates are the way he can win with less than 1237. Say Trump goes in with 1200, then he just needs 37 of these unbound and he is the nominee. And you can be sure that Trump will be handing out jobs, ambassadorships, free travel to the convention and possibly even suitcases of money to make that happen.

Hopefully any delegates willing to sell their vote for Trump hold out for a huge amount of money, because, after all, Trump is a hugely successful business man worth 90 billion dollars.
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