It really depends on what type of wave this is and what type of polling error we get. A general R polling error is what we got in 2020 and 2021 and would clearly put Ohio and Iowa out of reach as it did in 2020. It's hard for me to imagine Washington being an easier flip than Colorado though.
A general D polling error, possible only if Roe v. Wade is a bigger deal than we think it is at this point, would allow for Iowa and Ohio. I think if the Selzer poll is another Grassely +3 bomb then Iowa might be the real shoker. Ohio may be more urban but it's also more Appalachian and Vance is surging in the polls.
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