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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
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Author Topic: Post Random Maps Here 2.0.  (Read 211497 times)
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #75 on: February 07, 2018, 02:04:57 PM »
Polarization: 2016 without any counties that voted against the statewide result



285-253 Trump

With DC representing all counties removed, collectively going 52-43 Clinton.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #76 on: February 07, 2018, 08:03:52 PM »
2016 adjusted based on Democratic preformances in the same year's senate races



Clinton wins with 279 EV.
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #77 on: February 07, 2018, 08:22:19 PM »
2016 adjusted based on GOP performances in the same year's senate races



Trump wins with 367 EV and PV.
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #78 on: February 10, 2018, 12:17:11 AM »


2016 without any counties that voted Landon 1936.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #79 on: February 10, 2018, 10:15:11 PM »


Tacos vs Chinese food
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #80 on: February 10, 2018, 10:57:51 PM »
« Edited: February 10, 2018, 11:08:30 PM by bagelman »


How I would vote in the 2016 primaries per state

Green - Sanders

Red - Kasich

Brown - Trump for sure

Orange - Maybe Trump, maybe not

If it weren't for GOP closed primaries DC would be red, LA orange, and FL brown. Dem closed primaries are ignored out of optimism, but they could screw me overs just like they did many others.

2008:



Gray: Obama if allowed

Sky blue: Abstain

Green: Romney
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #81 on: February 11, 2018, 06:54:21 PM »


A neoliberal "Opportunity Democrat" in the mold of Feinstien or Pelosi runs against a Republican who is Trumpist economically, unattractive to business conservatives. However, the main st. Republican wins by a single EV after a shocking victory in ME-01.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #82 on: February 11, 2018, 07:21:33 PM »
« Edited: February 11, 2018, 07:33:15 PM by bagelman »


Search interest Sanders vs. Clinton from May 2015 through June 2016.

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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #83 on: February 11, 2018, 07:23:03 PM »
« Edited: February 11, 2018, 07:32:40 PM by bagelman »
Quote from: cookiedamage on February 11, 2018, 07:13:44 PM
Quote from: bagelman on February 11, 2018, 06:54:21 PM

A neoliberal "Opportunity Democrat" in the mold of Feinstien or Pelosi runs against a Republican who is Trumpist economically, unattractive to business conservatives. However, the main st. Republican wins by a single EV after a shocking victory in ME-01.

Lmao winning TX but not NM, AZ, or CO. K.

If you're going to throw shade, I'd say that you could have DEMs win UT and lose IL on top of that and it's still better than a TL with both President Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #84 on: February 11, 2018, 07:30:31 PM »
« Edited: February 11, 2018, 07:33:46 PM by bagelman »
Quote from: Solid4096 on February 11, 2018, 07:28:23 PM
Quote from: bagelman on February 11, 2018, 07:21:33 PM
snip

Search interest Sanders vs. Clinton from May 2015 through June 2016.



What does Gray mean?

Also, I notice that the former Confederate States was a large cluster of more Clinton search interest (I wonder what it says about Clinton primary supporters when her strongest states were the former Confederate States), and it appears to extend into Maryland and Delaware for some reason, while not extending anywhere else.

Ties. (This is from google trends, all of the tied states were colored but I decided to make them gray)

I considered making that remark as well, always like to throw shade at Clinton, but I remembered the reason is likely a higher black population.

Oh - and DC is supposed to be absent as I couldn't see data for it, my mistake. 
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #85 on: February 11, 2018, 11:12:00 PM »
Don't see Teddy winning all those states >40% but Wilson winning all his states <40%.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #86 on: February 13, 2018, 06:35:51 PM »


President Ronald Reagan (R-CA) / Vice President Jack Kemp (R-NY) 535 EV

Senator Gary Hart (D-CO) / Nobody cares (D-wherever) 3 EV



Larry MacDonald (D-GA) / John Glenn (D-OH) 313

Jack Kemp (R-NY) / Reasonable VP choice 225

1992



President Larry MacDonald (D-GA) / Vice President John Glenn (D-OH) 377

Pete du Pont (R-DE) / Honestly, his VP pick showed desperation 161

1996



Pat Buchanan (R-VA) / Pete Wilson (R-CA) 279

Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX) / Bob Kerrey (D-NE) 259



Al Gore (D-TN) / Patrick Leahy (D-VT) 294

Pat Buchanan (R-VA) / Pete Wilson (R-CA) 244
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #87 on: February 14, 2018, 04:10:03 PM »
« Edited: February 14, 2018, 04:15:15 PM by bagelman »


The result of a future realignment. Democrats are technocratic proponents of a mixed economy system, but reject socialism or redistribution. Republicans resemble paeloconservatives. Signs of the old order exist: Democrats are statistically likely to be a few shades darker than Republicans, DC is still safe D and the upper southern states are still more Republican.

Cities that were once strongly R, now strongly D: St. Georges UT, Yuma-Bullhead City-Flagstaff AZ, Carson City, Pueblo and Colorado Springs CO, Ft. Meyers FL. Boise isn't ultra safe D but does swing that way.

Cities that were once strongly D, now strongly R: Seattle WA and all suburbs and neighbors thereof, Portland-Astoria OR, anywhere in Alaska that was ever D, Great Lakes metros that were trending R as early as the 2010s. Hamilton County OH now regularly votes left of Cuyahoga. The Twin Cities metro in MN is reasonably competitive.  Madison WI isn't exactly conservative, but it's a city that's seen better days.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #88 on: February 17, 2018, 04:10:32 PM »


2012:
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #89 on: February 18, 2018, 03:32:38 PM »


307-224 GOP

1912 election. Moderately progressive Republican incumbent defeats a Democratic candidate always flip flopping between prairie populism and business. The Democrat was rumored to be a secret member of the Mormon church, considered a cult by the GOP campaign.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #90 on: February 18, 2018, 09:25:17 PM »
FL I don't think I could get away with.
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #91 on: February 20, 2018, 08:24:16 PM »
Quayle would not have been elected in the first place.
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #92 on: February 21, 2018, 01:09:56 PM »


Yellow: Would rather live in the most Libertarian county than the last

Green: Opposite of that

Gray: Neither/Not Enough Libertarians/No County data
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #93 on: February 21, 2018, 04:33:43 PM »


Red - Would rather live the county that swung towards Clinton. She of course won nicer areas, which is frankly a bad thing.

Pink - Would rather live in the county that swung the least towards Trump

Blue - Would rather live in the county that swung the most towards Trump
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #94 on: February 22, 2018, 05:53:45 PM »


With the Canadian and Mexican border counties made into two states. AK represents the northern border, which is Democratic because of Detroit, and ND represents the southern border. The non-border counties of ND were of course merged into SD.
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #95 on: February 23, 2018, 08:47:33 PM »




random fun with khw
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #96 on: February 24, 2018, 07:24:25 PM »
System: All the counties that voted Trump or Clinton in a state are counted separately and put into the apportionment calculator. The winner of the state gets a 2 point senatorial bonus, except for Maine which allocates it based on its 2 CDs.





NET:



Clinton wins by 43 if I counted corrected.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #97 on: February 25, 2018, 12:30:03 AM »


more fun with khw

2012:



Clinton wins, and by more than Obama.
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #98 on: February 25, 2018, 12:57:55 AM »
Quote from: Razze on February 24, 2018, 09:46:25 PM

2024

Sec. of Internal Improvements Takeshi Sakamoto (D-Nebraska) / Vice Pres. James A. Kennedy (D-Texas)
~280 votes, 48.7%

Sen. Nelson Guevara (R-New York) / Sen. Andrew Alegrķa (R-Florida)
~260 votes, 50.0%

Any context on any of the elections, especially this one?
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #99 on: February 25, 2018, 02:09:34 AM »
« Edited: February 25, 2018, 02:12:54 AM by bagelman »


Experiment to get NY to vote Trump. The result is a sprawling state. NJ has a northern panhandle, Philly and Wilmington are part of the state of Delaware, not to be confused with the low population lean R state of Delmarva (DM). Baltimore and Arlington are part of the heavily Afro-American state of Potomac (PT). Virginia and West Virginia look like culturally distinct twins. The Canton half of the Akron-Canton metro is part of west NY, as is Portage County. Pittsburgh is the only Democratic voting area added to NY.

Obama won NY (by about 900K) and OH (about 100K) in 2012.
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