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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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Author Topic: Post Random Maps Here 2.0.  (Read 212162 times)
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #25 on: October 19, 2017, 03:04:32 PM »


2004 with 2000's margin. 284-254 DEM. Ohio pays off.



2004 with Vermont's swing

380-158 DEM

Closest states: WV, NC, TN, LA, AZ



2004 with Alabama's swing, basically the inverse of Vermont's.

385-153 GOP win

Closest states: HI, DE, ME, WA, NJ, CA
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #26 on: October 19, 2017, 03:40:22 PM »
« Edited: October 19, 2017, 06:02:09 PM by bagelman »



2000 with 1996's margin. 371-167 DEM

Closest states: VA (<1000 votes), LA, CO, WV, AZ



Applying MD's swing is largely cosmetic, swinging VA and CO, the latter by yet another <1000 vote margin



2000 if it swung like TN

296-242 DEM

Closest states: NH, MO, FL, OH, NM



2000 if it swung like TX

366-172 GOP

Closest states: VT, WA, MI, ME, CA



2000 if it swung like WY. Dems win 3 states.

486-52 GOP

Closest states: HI, CT, MD, NJ
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #27 on: October 19, 2017, 04:09:27 PM »
Quote from: Spenstar on October 19, 2017, 04:01:03 PM
Is 2008 but the nation swings like Virginia similar to the IL one?

The map would be exactly the same on the state level, with GA less likely to need a recount.
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #28 on: October 19, 2017, 06:33:40 PM »


1996 with 1992's D-R margin



1996 if it swung like KS. 403-135 GOP.

Closest states: MD, MN, DE, AR



1996 if it swung like NJ

Closest state: WY

Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #29 on: October 19, 2017, 09:43:41 PM »


1992 with 1988's D-R margin. 390-147-1 GOP win.



1992 if the nation swung like Iowa, the only state to swing towards the GOP. 457-80-1 GOP win.



1992 if the nation swung like Arkansas. The farm crises causes a nationwide famine which the president bungles. 532-6 DEM win.
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #30 on: October 26, 2017, 04:07:35 PM »


Nick Saban (R-AL) / John Calipari (R-KY) 463 EV

Democrats: 75 EV
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #31 on: October 27, 2017, 05:20:55 PM »


Donald Trump (R-NY) / John Kelly (R-MA) 514 EV

Fmr. State Sen. Micheal Cortez (D-FL) / Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) 24
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #32 on: October 27, 2017, 10:03:01 PM »
Ohio is always right



491-47 DEM

1968:



Texas is flipped, minor changes elsewhere, mostly at the expense of Wallace.

1972:



No real change

1976:



1980:



Nothing but margin changes here to

1984:



1988:



WA flips

(cont)
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #33 on: October 27, 2017, 10:31:22 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2017, 12:09:30 PM by bagelman »
1992:



337-200-1

1996



2000



290-248

Wait, I thought Ohio was always right?
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #34 on: October 28, 2017, 12:19:37 PM »
2008



338-200

2016



337-201
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #35 on: October 28, 2017, 04:57:57 PM »


1992 with the margin from ME-02

323 Clinton, 162 Perot, 53 Bush



1992 with a 3 way tie

202 Clinton, 195 Bush, 141 Perot



1992 with 1968's margin

293-245 Bush

Bush states under 2%: IA, TN, LA, WI
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #36 on: October 28, 2017, 05:11:02 PM »
1968 with 1992's margin



345 Humphrey, 116 Nixon, 77 Wallace
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #37 on: October 28, 2017, 08:57:18 PM »


2016 with Utah's margins

417-115-6 Trump. The combined McMuffin + Johnson vote is more than Clinton.



The same election as above with all Trump voters removed. The Conservative-Libertarian alliance, known as the "Republican Party", defeats the Democrats 312-226. Gary Johnson (R-NM) becomes the Vice President under Evan McMullin (R-UT).



This is what would have happened had the Conservative and Libertarians failed to present a united front: a 420-118 slaughter. This reflects the margins in Utah between Clinton and McMuffin, but with a national stakes the Libertarians find united with McMullin's Conservatives to be the strategically best choice.
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #38 on: October 29, 2017, 12:47:55 PM »


2016 with all Clinton and Trump votes removed
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #39 on: October 29, 2017, 01:39:29 PM »
« Edited: October 29, 2017, 01:43:32 PM by bagelman »
2008 with Obama and McCain votes all removed, re-imagined as a parliamentary election between Nader's Consumer's Party, Barr's Libertarian Party, Baldwin's Constitution Party, and McKinney's Social Justice Party. Also with a healthy dose of independent candidates.



Proportional results:

Consumer's Party: 204 Seats

Libertarian Party: 159 Seats

Constitutional Party: 55 Seats

Social Justice Party: 45 Seats

73 seats held by independent candidates.
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #40 on: October 29, 2017, 04:44:11 PM »


Same idea with 2004, although here I found a problem with the proportional representation system state-by-state: Badnarik, despite getting less votes than Nader, has a 201-184 seat advantage over him. Peroutka gets 64, Cobb 45, 19 seats for independents, and 9 seats for minor parties.

A solution is to reserve 2 EV per state for outright winners.
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #41 on: October 29, 2017, 05:53:57 PM »


365-173 via the proportional system

465-73 via WTA

Nader '00 vs Everyone else besides Bush and Gore combined '00.
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #42 on: October 29, 2017, 06:14:58 PM »


1996 with all votes for Clinton, Dole, and Perot removed.

WTA: 298-216-24 Browne

However, Nader, once again, wins the PV here.
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #43 on: October 29, 2017, 09:50:20 PM »
« Edited: October 30, 2017, 11:13:45 AM by bagelman »


This one is a mess, 1992 with all Clinton/Bush/Perot votes removed.

Yellow is Marrou (Libertarian), Blue is Gritz (America First, also Populist), Green is Fulani (New Alliance), Orange is LaRouche, and Red is Other:

New York: Socialist Workers' Party

Iowa: Natural Law Party

Arkansas: US Taxpayer's Party

On top of that, WI is rounded up so it doesn't turn white.

There's no way that a country with results like this would use winner take all. In a parliamentary system, Marrou's Libertarians would end up in a coalition government, perhaps with US Taxpayer's.
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #44 on: October 30, 2017, 11:37:09 AM »


the real result of 2016. successfully suppressed by Russian hackers, according to this
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #45 on: October 30, 2017, 04:34:58 PM »
« Edited: October 30, 2017, 04:36:55 PM by bagelman »
Alternative 1856



American Party 187

Democratic Party 104

Republican Party 5
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #46 on: October 30, 2017, 09:09:57 PM »


2016 with Johnson's raw votes * 10. Trump wins 299-216-23.
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #47 on: October 30, 2017, 09:34:40 PM »


Combined McMullin * 10 to Johnson doesn't change it either. 289-206-43 Trump.

Stein's vote * 10 added to Clinton changes things



324-184-30 Clinton
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #48 on: October 30, 2017, 10:15:56 PM »
Best efforts of a weak man



350-188 Clinton. 2016 with NM's margin, using a better method of calculation.



2016 with Utah's margin using the new method. 446-83-9.
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,638
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #49 on: November 13, 2017, 01:27:21 PM »


Mitt Romney 287

Liz Warren 251

2016
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