Post Random Maps Here 2.0.

[bagelman]

I had a dream that the 2020 election came early- like, end of 2017 early. i just woke up one morning and saw results. I was surprised by it all. The election was Trump vs. Heitkamp; Trump won the EC while Heitkamp won a PV majority (I think?). Trump somehow lost ND and SD to Heitkamp while winning MN.

Also, the map on Wikipedia had "normal" colors for the Dem wins and GOP wins, but the little color bar beneath Trump and Heitkamp's portraits were the Atlas colors for the parties. Again, for some reason.

2017 US Special Presidential Election

President Donald Trump / Vice President Mike Pence 293 EV

Senator Heidi Heitkamp / Senator Kristen Gillibrand  245 EV

[bagelman]

This is 2016 if states had swung the same way as their counties that swung furthest towards Clinton or least towards Trump. In this election, the Republicans nominated someone with the same authoritarian and crass tones of Trump, but forgot to make him appealing to blue collar rust belt voters, instead he doubled down on tired old southern fried social conservatism. He's also just plain less charismatic all around. The Democrats nominate a candidate that combines the best part of the socially liberal Obama era with a friendlier message to WCWs, promising to make health care reform simpler and more effective at the same time. Democrats do well in both north and south. Meanwhile, a third party libertarian candidate doubles Johnson's share of the vote with decent support nationwide but massive mountain west popularity, so popular in Idaho the GOP vote in split and Democrats get their biggest surprise there.

This map works well as a 2020 possibility, with Trump a failure and the Democrats finding the Goldilocks zone between the sunbelt and rustbelt strategies, helped out by the third party vote. 

Map shows the situation the morning after, with AZ the only state too close to call, and ME-02 as well.

[bagelman]

what about Arizona?

edited that in

The reverse of the previous scenario. Republicans find a candidate with the same ability as Trump to attract WCWs but doesn't alienate other conservatives. Combined with a sleazy Democratic administration and the Democratic candidate being someone like Cuomo, the worst traits of Hillary Clinton, etc. The resulting election sees the great Rural Revolt managing to win over the hearts of many moderate suburbanites. As of the morning after, New York has just been called for the GOP as they continue to celebrate into the dawn. New Jersey, for some reason, remains too close to call, as does ME-01 bolstered by a Portland loyal to the Democrats. Republicans won all KY counties, in MO they won all but St. Louis City, Illinois was called before California.

[bagelman]

Same idea as my previous post, which is the last on the last page, this time for 2012.

363-175 GOP above, 386-149 DEM below

[bagelman]

Above: 302-236 GOP

2008

Below: 464-74 DEM

Just as a reminder, I'm taking the most rightward or leftward swing and having the state swing that way instead of the way it did.

[bagelman]

Above: 461-67 GOP

2004

Below: 360-168 DEM

[bagelman]

Above: 456-82 GOP

2000

Below: 388-150 DEM

[bagelman]

1996: Ross Perot defeats incumbent president Clinton and the Republican challenger.

[bagelman]

Above: 509-29 DEM

1996

Below: 374-153 GOP

[bagelman]

Above: 503-22 DEM

1992

Below: 345-104 GOP

[bagelman]

Above: 386-143 DEM

1988

Below: 506-32 GOP

[bagelman]

1968 with Wallace as Democratic candidate, getting same share of the vote as H³, while H³ runs as progressive third party and winning DC. Wallace is rejected by the nation as concerned with Southern issues and interests to the exclusion of the rest of the USA.

[bagelman]

Dakota is one of the 48 states.

khw

[bagelman]

khw

[bagelman]

2012 version

[bagelman]

[bagelman]

Above is a little game in which I take a Romney state and give it counties over to an Obama state with a raw vote margin just a bit less to flip it. I've done 2016 versions yesterday. Below is the 2016 map with the first map's counties.

khw

[bagelman]

khw

2016:

[bagelman]

All the counties in the country that contain all the bottom 100 poorest non-college towns and cities are merged into a single state, the capital of which is Pittsburgh. The state is represented on the map as Wyoming, with WY itself swallowed by Montana.

khw

The state voted 50.9% for Obama '12.

 

[bagelman]

Same idea with the poorest counties. Brownsville is the capital. South Texas and Clayton GA overpower the strongly GOP rural whites.

khw

The state voted 53% Obama '12.

[bagelman]

snip

What would these hypothetical states have looked like in 2016?

That's the map

I made two states each for the top 50 and the second top 50 richest counties, by median as opposed to per captia. They both voted about the same.

khw

[bagelman]

snip

What would these hypothetical states have looked like in 2016?

That's the map

I made two states each for the top 50 and the second top 50 richest counties, by median as opposed to per captia. They both voted about the same.
snip

So I gather Clinton would have won each with around 50% of the vote?

Yep

Here's the top 25 wealthiest counties per captia, which include Manhattan, SF, and DC.

khw

[bagelman]

AFC East: 29 EV, 58-38 Clinton

AFC North: 20 EV, 50-46 Trump

AFC South: 24 EV, 55-40 Trump

AFC West: 16 EV, 60-33 Clinton

NFC East: 28 EV, 59-37 Clinton

NFC North: 31 EV, 55-39 Clinton

NFC South: 37 EV, 50-46 Trump

NFC West: 21 EV, 58-36 Clinton

NY metro: 34 EV, 60-37 Clinton

LA metro: 27 EV, 61-33 Clinton

Remaining areas:

MD is the remainder of MD, DE, and NJ.

khw

[bagelman]

All African American majority counties are moved to their own state, represented by WY, which is merged into MT.

[bagelman]

Same idea with Hispanics. Weird calculations as NC and MO, both unchanged, gain an EV each.