A lot of money has been put into defeating Hostettler, who seems like he would be another Massie.
He was not gung ho pro-Israel aid when he served in Congress, so AIPAC are spending heavy against him.
I live in the Indiana 3rd, I disagree with your take on Zay is an extremist. He's a pretty regular State Senator. I jokingly call him "Tenderloin Man" as he is from Dan Quayle's hometown of Huntington where a downtown restaurant says they invented the breaded tenderloin sandwich, and Zay wrote a bill a couple years ago that became law to make the Breaded Tenderloin the State Sandwich of Indiana. It made news of we're in the middle of a large property tax crisis and the General Assembly is passing laws about breaded tenderloins.
Everything I've read is the 3rd is a crapshoot between the former Congressman Stutzman, 2019 Fort Wayne Mayoral candidate complete failure Tim Smith, and Allen County Judge Wendy Smith, with Zay being an outsider that's a tier above the random "everyone else" running. So no different than 2016 when it was a broadway between Jim Banks, Kip Tom, and Liz Brown.
Zay will clean up Huntington although it's small. Largest vote center is Allen County/Fort Wayne. Smith was a pretty bad candidate for Fort Wayne Mayor in 2019 so I can't imagine Fort Wayne Republican establishment back him. Stutzman was Congressional Rep before I paid attention to local politics so not much idea of him. Davis will do strongest in Allen County (Fort Wayne), but I think being a judge from Fort Wayne hurts her everywhere else, and her and Smith will kind of cancel out Fort Wayne's influence. Since nothing major has occurred, that screams draw and I think Stutzman will get the nomination then.
As far as who all the PACs are backing: http://www.fortwaynepolitics.com/p/whos-really-behind-all-the-negative
Probably the craziest primary is the 5th. I would not be surprised if Spartz loses to Goodrich, she's annoyed enough people, but incumbency...Chinthala some parts of the district have been openly antagonistic to per reports.
The 6th Shreve has effectively used his name recognition from the 2023 Indianapolis Mayor's race and money to try to buy the nomination (the southern part of Indianapolis is in this district). Speedy is the next most solid option, but Jamison Carter was climbing in private polls per the political newscasters I frequent.
You skip the 4th but don't discount an upset of Baird by Bookwalter.
Glad you posted this to save me some typing. Pretty spot on analysis. Stutzman I think is favored because of his name recognition being the most widespread in the district. He was a tea party type back in the day and got crushed by the Todd Young machine (including myself) in the 2016 senate primary. He did carry his district strongly though. He’s not the worst.
My guess is Hostettler can’t overcome the Israel lobby. I think Sparz narrowly edges Goodrich but either way wouldn’t suprise me.
Bookwalter has run an extremely aggressive campaign but I still think he loses 60-40 to Baird. I voted for Baird. Bookwalter is a nut.
