Suppose that instead of New York you see something like this:
INDIANA
Cruz 49 Sanders 44
Cruz 61 Clinton 33
We know how Indiana goes. Everything must go right for the Democrat for the Democrat to have a chance of winning Indiana, much as everything must go right for the Republican for the Republican to have a chance of winning New York.
But what else could we conclude? Although neither Clinton nor Sanders has a chance of winning Indiana, Sanders is close enough in Indiana that the Indiana poll suggests that he is going to win a bunch of states that the Republican must win. Indiana has some of the same constituencies as do neighboring states. Indiana is simply more rural with few large suburbs. It has Indianapolis, South Bend-Elkhart, Gary-Hammond, Fort Wayne, Evansville, and lots of cornfields and hill country.
(An aside: the highly-successful TV comedy Parks and Recreation is set in a fictional Indiana city with an upscale suburban character, only one Indiana community in any way resembles that description. Mishawaka somewhat fits that description. The city is small enough that its name does not pass my spell-checker).
If more of Indiana were like "Pawnee", then Democrats would have about as much of a chance in Indiana as they have in Ohio.
Basically,
INDIANA
Cruz 49 Sanders 44
Cruz 61 Clinton 33
suggests that although Cruz will win Indiana should he face Sanders he will have a tough time winning Ohio, which is simply more urban and suburban. But this also says that he is doing well enough in places like the fictional "Pawnee" or the real Mishawaka that he will do well enough in Ohio to win and make Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin genuine contests should he face Clinton.
It's possible to draw conclusions about a national race from "sure things". Hillary Clinton
looks capable of losing a close election. Bernie Sanders now looks very strong. Winners win sure-win states by wide margins and make the sure-loss states closer than they otherwise would be. Losers win sure-win states by narrower-than-usual margins and lose sure-loss states by larger-than-usual margins. A Democrat winning New York by 20% is a usual winner in the national contest. A Democrat winning New York by 15% will lose the national contest.
I understand your point about the margins and you're absolutely right, but Indiana's suburbs are the core of the GOP support there. Places like Carmel, Zionsville, Noblesville, and basically the rest of the counties around Indianapolis. Hamilton county is the third largest county by population and it is all suburban and one of the wealthiest counties in America. Sorry for the rant just wanted to clear that up. The rural areas are in a lot of cases less republican than the suburbs that surround Indy.
