Overtime Politics Thread (WARNING: Possible fraud)

[weixiaobao]

why do they do more dem primary than the GOP primary? 

[weixiaobao]

why do they do more dem primary than the GOP primary?  

RCP and HuffPo seem to not be taking them seriously.

HuffPo tend to update new data from new pollster really late.  Sometimes a month later. 

RCP is the picky one.  But they take almost all state polls.  Though, this pollster being new, may not be on their radar.

Atlas is the only place that update the fastest because multiple people using google and all.

[weixiaobao]

http://overtimepolitics.com/trump-takes-substantial-23-point-lead-in-massachusetts-40-17-over-rubio/

GOP #s

[weixiaobao]

­ Dec 19-­23, 2015

Donald Trump ­ 127  33%
Ted Cruz ­ 76 ­ 20%
Marco Rubio ­ 49 ­ 13%
Jeb Bush ­ 23 ­ 6%
Rand Paul ­ 22 ­ 6%
Ben Carson ­ 15 ­ 4%
Chris Christie ­ 10 ­ 3%
John Kasich ­ 10 ­ 3%
Carly Fiorina ­ 1 ­ <1%
Other ­ 30 ­ 8%
Undecided ­ 26 ­ 7%

http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comDec19-23RepublicanPrimaryPoll-Arkansas.pdf

[weixiaobao]

They link to a PDF which has no methodology.
Overtime also does not list where it is located or who owns it.
It appears to be an invention of a Sanders supporter seeking to tip the narrative on his favor.

hmmm, Overtime is very suspicious.

[weixiaobao]

People always assume new polls are bad...maybe give it a chance before shooting it down, consider the changing face of southern Democrats.

Not so much that they are new.  But who are they?  They don't give too much info about them or their methodology and why they were able to chunk polls after polls out within 2 to 3 days.

[weixiaobao]

http://overtimepolitics.com/overnight-emails-and-a-few-questions-answered/

Did you guys send them profane emails??

[weixiaobao]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://overtimepolitics.com/overnight-emails-and-a-few-questions-answered/

[weixiaobao]

http://overtimepolitics.com/overnight-emails-and-a-few-questions-answered/

Did you guys send them profane emails??

No I think it is actually funny how these polls are bothering so many people lol.

I accidentally include all of their polls on my excel.  Hmm, now that their background is a little bit more known.  I am not sure if I should treat this with all the Isidewith, or Ipso state polls.  I guess as more polls come out I can compare them to other pollsters.

[weixiaobao]

From their website: "We plan on releasing at least 2/week between the 13th and next summer. In the final months of the 2016 campaign season, we will be releasing polls on nearly a daily basis."

This is either an extremely fast pollster with a large team, or it's just making up numbers.

Think of them like strawpoll more than scientific polls.  Though, I wonder do they call registered voters?

What is their demographic?  Adults?  Registered voters?  Likely voters?

[weixiaobao]

dem - vt http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comDec24-27DemocraticPrimaryPoll-Vermont.pdf

[weixiaobao]

why do they do more dem primary than the GOP primary?  

RCP and HuffPo seem to not be taking them seriously.

HuffPo tend to update new data from new pollster really late.  Sometimes a month later.  

RCP is the picky one.  But they take almost all state polls.  Though, this pollster being new, may not be on their radar.

Atlas is the only place that update the fastest because multiple people using google and all.

How in the world have you keep track of how long those organizations take to include new posters? are you making that up

I made them up.  Geez, what kind of loaded question is "are you making them up."

[weixiaobao]

12/16-12/17   2016 National Republican Primary   Trump   34%   Cruz   18%   PPP
12/16-12/17   2016 National Republican Primary   Trump   36%   Carson   12%   Morning Consult
12/10-12/13   2016 National Democratic Primary   Clinton   59%   Sanders   28%   ABC News/Washington Post
12/13-12/17   2016 New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary   Sanders   48%   Clinton   46%   Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald
12/13-12/17   2016 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary   Trump   26%   Rubio   12%   Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald
11/4-11/8   Party Identification   independent   39%   Democrat   30%   Gallup
10/7-10/11   Party Identification   independent   42%   Democrat   29%   Gallup
9/9-9/13   Party Identification   independent   43%   Republican   27%   Gallup
8/5-8/9   Party Identification   independent   41%   Democrat   31%   Gallup
7/8-7/12   Party Identification   independent   46%   Democrat   28%   Gallup
6/2-6/7   Party Identification   independent   41%   Democrat   31%   Gallup
12/16   2016 Florida Republican Presidential Primary   Trump   30%   Cruz   20%   Opinion Savvy/Fox 13/ Florida Times-Union
12/16   2016 Georgia Republican Presidential Primary   Trump   35%   Cruz   16%   Opinion Savvy/Fox 5 Atlanta

Do you not see June and July data entered in December?  Usually meant, they are now tracking of something that they didn't track before.  This being party identification.

10/24-11/5   2016 Arizona Presidential GE   Clinton   47%   Sanders   19%   Behavior Research Center
11/15-11/17   2016 National Republican Primary   Trump   24%   Carson   20%   Bloomberg/Selzer
11/9-11/13   2016 Virginia Presidential GE   Clinton   50%   Trump   36%   Roanoke College
11/16-11/18   Obama Job Approval   Disapprove   54%   Approve   44%   Rasmussen Reports
11/15-11/17   2016 New Hampshire Presidential GE   Rubio   47%   Clinton   40%   FOX News
11/16-11/17   2016 General Election   Rubio   45%   Clinton   43%   PPP
11/16-11/17   2016 National Republican Primary   Trump   26%   Carson   19%   PPP
11/15-11/17   2016 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary   Trump   27%   Rubio   13%   FOX News
11/15-11/17   Obama Job Approval   Disapprove   51%   Approve   44%   Bloomberg/Selzer
11/15-11/17   Obama Job Approval   Disapprove   50%   Approve   45%   Gallup
11/15-11/17   Obama Job Approval   Disapprove   55%   Approve   44%   Rasmussen Reports
11/13-11/16   2016 Connecticut Presidential Republican Primary   Trump   25%   Rubio   14%   Emerson College Polling Society
11/11-11/15   2016 Colorado Presidential Republican Primary   Carson   25%   Rubio   19%   Quinnipiac University
11/14-11/15   2016 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary   Trump   23%   Carson   13%   MassINC/WBUR
11/7-11/11   2016 National Republican Primary   Trump   33%   Carson   17%   Ipsos/Reuters (Web)
11/4-11/9   2016 Virginia Presidential Republican Primary   Carson   29%   Trump   24%   University of Mary Washington/PSRAI
11/14-11/16   Obama Job Approval   Approve   49%   Disapprove   47%   Gallup
11/12-11/16   2015 Louisiana Governor   Edwards   48%   Vitter   42%   Red Racing Horses/PMI
11/7-11/12   North Carolina: Obama Job Approval   Disapprove   49%   Approve   43%   High Point University
11/14-11/16   2015 Louisiana Governor   Edwards   51%   Vitter   35%   JMC Analytics and Polling
11/7-11/8   2016 South Carolina Presidential GE   Carson   51%   Clinton   39%   PPP
11/12-11/16   Obama Job Approval   Disapprove   54%   Approve   44%   Rasmussen Reports
11/13-11/16   2016 National Republican Primary   Trump   38%   Carson   19%   Morning Consult
11/4-11/8   Obama Job Approval - Foreign Policy   Disapprove   59%   Approve   37%   Gallup
11/11-11/13   2015 Louisiana Governor   Edwards   53%   Vitter   38%   MRI
10/29-11/4   Obama Job Approval   Approve   48%   Disapprove   48%   McClatchy/Marist
11/8-11/12   US Right Direction Wrong Track   Wrong Track   67%   Right Direction   28%   Rasmussen Reports
11/13-11/15   Obama Job Approval   Approve   51%   Disapprove   44%   Gallup
11/4-11/8   New Jersey: Obama Job Approval   Disapprove   52%   Approve   45%   Quinnipiac University
11/11-11/15   Obama Job Approval   Disapprove   54%   Approve   44%   Rasmussen Reports
11/12-11/14   Obama Job Approval   Approve   50%   Disapprove   45%   Gallup
11/11-11/13   Obama Job Approval   Approve   48%   Disapprove   48%   Gallup
11/11   2015 Louisiana Governor   Edwards   48%   Vitter   42%   MarblePort Polling/Hayride
11/9-11/10   2015 Louisiana Governor   Edwards   52%   Vitter   38%   MRI
11/11   2016 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary   Trump   29%   Cruz   12%   Gravis Marketing
11/1-11/5   US Right Direction Wrong Track   Wrong Track   66%   Right Direction   27%   Rasmussen Reports
10/25-10/29   US Right Direction Wrong Track   Wrong Track   65%   Right Direction   27%   Rasmussen Reports
4/9-4/15   2016 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary   Undecided (Vol.)   23%   Walker   13%   Burning Glass /Partnership for a New American Economy
4/9-4/15   2016 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary   Undecided (Vol.)   19%   Bush   16%   Burning Glass /Partnership for a New American Economy
4/9-4/15   2016 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus   Walker   20%   Undecided (Vol.)   17%   Burning Glass /Partnership for a New American Economy
10/29-11/4   2016 National Democratic Primary   Clinton   57%   Sanders   35%   McClatchy/Marist
11/4-11/8   Obama Health Care Law: Favor/Oppose   Disapprove   52%   Approve   44%   Gallup
11/10-11/12   Obama Job Approval   Disapprove   49%   Approve   47%   Gallup
11/10-11/12   Obama Job Approval   Disapprove   53%   Approve   46%   Rasmussen Reports
11/11-11/12   2016 National Republican Primary

Here for example, they found out about this Burning Glass polls (in April) in November and just entered in November.

Anyway, I have negative perception of your posts before.  I don't remember exactly how you ticked me off.  But you did probably couple of months ago.  Chances are, I probably will not reply to you again.

But since I already did the leg work for your loaded question.  The people work at Huffpollster are very human.  They got data (I don't know how) probably via various meant but also googling like how the people in this forum get the data for the polling archive.  And as a person who google for polls almost everyday.  Some polls just doesn't quite show up like Dan Jones, or Silver Bullet before.  And or poll that I found out today but didn't realize they have been doing couple polls before that (hence I entered in my own excel archive).  It just simple logic.

Who know, Huffpollster may deemed overtime as completely fake and may not insert that into their data.  I don't know.  But Overtime doesn't appear in Google search in simple search phrases like "latest poll" or something like that before (maybe they do in the future).

Good?  Just basic common sense, really.

[weixiaobao]

They posted that few hours ago. 

http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/

all your need.

[weixiaobao]

i am starting to see other sites referencing Overtime, like
https://johnkasich.com/blog-posts/overtime-politics-john-kasichs-new-hampshire-strength-reinforced-again/

But I doubt all those guys verified with the people on Overtime.

[weixiaobao]

Couple of interesting thing, look like Overtime didn't really used other polls to make up their #s.  Reasons.

1) They had to delayed their polls at time (sometimes to the next day) if they just make up sh**t, then they would have to do that.

2) There is no Minnesota poll (or any Minnesota poll recently) that put Clinton and Sanders that close.  It is one thing to put out something so bold after another poll did it.  It is another to release something like that before other polls show this.  So if another poll show similar to this, then it will somewhat verify Overtime.

3) Same with GOP #s, the last time we saw was Carson at 2nd.  If they making up #s and put Rubio at 2nd instead of Cruz.  That is another bold choice (not as bold as the Dem one since Rubio did pretty decent 3rd place back in Oct/Nov.

Whether or not their #s are accurate, I don't know.  But we can verify some of the states they did when there are current polling exist.

But I think I can rule out that they making up #s.  Their method maybe amateur and flaw but I don't think it is fake.

[weixiaobao]

https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/42dnx6/i_am_the_ownerfounder_of_overtime_politics_ama/

[weixiaobao]

I was saboman on that thread.  It seemed a tad weird that someone would put out like 1000+ dollars per week for no direct financial gain.

[weixiaobao]

spending approximately $1,000 of my own money each week

This is the biggest reason why I am super suspicious of them despite I am willing to trust them as strawpoll.  Spending a large sum of money for what gain??  Either they are stupid, or a thousand dollars are chum change, or they faking numbers.

I think their GOP iowa poll push me over the edge.  Other polls like DMR/Quinnipiac had an excuse because half of the days were prior to the debate and didn't quite measure the people who make last minute decision.

Polls polls all the way to Iowa caucus and or mostly after debate/or exclusively post debate portrayed the Rubio surge.

Their poll was mostly after the debate should not produce those #s, especially with Rubio that low.