Democratic leaning non-college educated whites

[CadetCashBoi]

In my anecdotal experience at least a segment of the minority of non-college whites that still vote Democratic are culturally very different from the majority that vote Republican. They're more likely to live in cities and in many cases have a bohemian sensibility and didn't go to college or may have dropped out to pursue a career in music and the arts.

I also do find it annoying that polls tend not to differentiate lower income whites from non-college educated whites because while the former group may appear to have trended overwhelmingly Republican if you just look at the sorts of homogeneous counties in Appalachia which they dominate I question weather or not that's the case elsewhere. I'd be interested to see a partisan breakdown of non-college whites divided by income.

[CadetCashBoi]

Strictly anecdotal, but growing up in Lake County, Indiana and being involved in the local Democratic Party, the ones I met were of all ages but generally seemed to come from union families and many were ethnic whites (Poles and Greeks, especially) who kept the culture.

Three were white girls from my high school who were in relationships with/married to nonwhite men. Meanwhile, the local Dem Party was 50/50 noncollege whites (virtually all older) vs. college whites (lots of lawyers!) + minorities.

Again, strictly anecdotal.

Interesting about the local Dem party. I guess it makes sense that you'd be especially loyal to a party if it's not the norm of your social milliu. Do you know how the two groups within the party broke down in primaries?

[CadetCashBoi]

Non-college white people are a blind spot for media types more generally, which is absurd because the modal American voter is a white person who didn't get a college degree.

Who is the base of small town/rural county Republican politics? It's not hedge fund managers. It's the guy who owns the car dealership, the guy who sold some of his family's farmland to the state to expand the highway and then parceled out the rest for exurban McMansions, the guy who owns a small factory that makes HVAC parts.

I think where this loses a lot of people is that these are, paradoxically, often high-wealth, low-status careers. The work itself is boring and so is the product. You live in a small flyover town; maybe you built yourself a McMansion next to a golf course but when your kids want to go to the mall, they have to drive an hour and a half to the nearest city/suburb, there is no museum or symphony, and certainly no independent films being shown in the local theater. You have plenty of money but you buy your groceries at Walmart because that's basically all there is.

https://twitter.com/tomscocca/status/1320741825955696640?s=20

This is why contrary to some commentators tendency to hype up the similarities between Bernie's populist appeal and Trump's are wrong because their most fervent supporter bases overwhelmingly were about as polar opposite as you could possibly get. Bernie supporters tended to be young, downwardly mobile, well educated, living in cities and more likely to work in higher status careers with lousy pay. In 2016 they had the similarity of both being overwhelmingly white but for Bernie supporters this was far less true in 2020.