2020 Swing-o-meter Projection

[Senator Spark]

If ya'll recall my projection from 2016: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=238305.msg5103086#msg5103086

I was on target. I'm working on one for this cycle based on that calculator.

President Donald J. Trump (R-FL) / Vice President Michael R. Pence (R-IN) - 294 electoral votes, 48.6%
Fmr. Vice President Joseph R. Biden (D-DE) / Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) - 244 electoral votes, 49.1%
Others - 0 electoral votes, 2.3%

My projection this time has lower turnout across the board due to coronavirus. Biden is undoubtedly a better candidate than Hillary Clinton and will improve with non-college educated voters. I am unsure of his appeal with college educated voters but my best estimate is that he will perform on par with or better than Clinton with that group. Biden's weakness is with Hispanic voters who I believe will be his worst minority group. The sizeable third party share from 2016 will shrink this time around, with Trump gaining among Johnson voters and Biden winning some Republican defectors. I expect the President to narrowly win Independents again.
Demographic group breakdown-

Non-college educated white: 68% R, 47% turnout
College-educated white: 52% D, 65% turnout
Black: 89% D, 49% turnout
Hispanic/Latino: 65% D, 39% turnout
Asian/Other: 71% D, 37% turnout

Closest states:

PA- 49.1% R, 48.9% D
WI- 49.5% R, 48.6% D
NV- 49.9% D, 47.5% R
VA- 50.2% D, 47.7% R
NH- 49.4% R, 48.4% D
ME-02- 49.5% R, 46.7% D
CO- 50.1% D, 47.0% R
MN- 49.3% D, 47.8% R
IA- 50.3% R, 47.3% D
MI- 50.0% D, 48.4% R
OH- 50.7% R, 47.1% D
OR- 50.5% D, 45.4% R,
FL- 50.4% R, 48.2% D
NC- 51.3% R, 47.0% D
ME- 51.2% D, 45.1% R
GA- 52.2% R, 45.8% D
TX- 55.4% R, 42.7% D
AZ- 53.3% R, 44.4% D

Based on the calculator, I think CO, NH, VA, NV, OR, AZ, and TX will be off

[Senator Spark]

I don't want to sound dismissive because like you were kinda incredibly accurate in 2016, but I'm not sure that using that calculator again is a good thing. It was thought for 2016. Many things have changed or could have changed in these four years that might make it unreliable.
Also why for Hispanics and for Asians did you out a separate percentage for "R" and for Trump? What does that mean?

It may be a useful tool as a baseline. And I think Trump will do worse with those groups.

[Senator Spark]

Biden is winning more than 63% of Hispanics, he'll probably win close to 70%. Also when I put those numbers into the calculator, it resulted in a 274 to 264 Dem EV win. Also why exactly do you think minority turnout will tank?

I think minority turnout drops because they will have to pick between the lesser of two evils. Also, the coronavirus disproportionately affects minorities more severely.

[Senator Spark]

I don't want to sound dismissive because like you were kinda incredibly accurate in 2016, but I'm not sure that using that calculator again is a good thing. It was thought for 2016. Many things have changed or could have changed in these four years that might make it unreliable.
Also why for Hispanics and for Asians did you out a separate percentage for "R" and for Trump? What does that mean?

It may be a useful tool as a baseline. And I think Trump will do worse with those groups.

Will do worse with those groups compared to what?

Trump won less than 30% of both Hispanics and Asians in 2016.

Fixed.