538 model & poll tracker thread (user search)
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  538 model & poll tracker thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 538 model & poll tracker thread  (Read 59802 times)
Senator Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,698
United States


« on: August 12, 2020, 07:50:40 AM »
Slightly more fair to Trump this time but still biased.
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Senator Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,698
United States


« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2020, 08:15:47 AM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on August 12, 2020, 08:12:35 AM
Here is the trend implied in every state and district for his median popular vote estimates. There seems to be a little bit of underestimating of partisan margin effect again but overall very stable from 2016.



AL: D+2
AK: -
AZ: -
AR: D+7
CA: R+5
CO: -
CT: -
DE: D+7
DC: R+7
FL: R+1
GA: R+3
HI: R+4
ID: R+2
IL: R+1
IN: -
IA: -
KS: D+2
KY: D+5
LA: R+1
ME: -
 ME1: R+1
 ME2: D+1
MD: R+4
MA: R+2
MI: D+2
MN: R+1
MS: D+1
MO: D+4
MT: D+3
NE: -
 NE1: D+3
 NE2: R+2
 NE3: D+2
NV: R+1
NH: D+2
NJ: R+2
NM: R+1
NY: R+2
NC: R+1
ND: D+6
OH: D+2
OK: D+3
OR: R+2
PA: D+1
RI: D+3
SC: -
SD: D+4
TN: D+4
TX: R+1
UT: R+4
VT: D+4
VA: D+1
WA: D+3
WV: D+3
WI: D+1
WY: -

Sun Belt trends R!
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Senator Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,698
United States


« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2020, 11:11:15 AM »
My model is better. LOL
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