2017 BC General Election Prediction thread

[Pragmatic Conservative]

With advanced voting starting today, and the general election 10 days away, it is a good time to begin making predictions.

I will keep track of user predictions in an excel file, and we can compare how everyone did after May 9th.

For those of you that may want a quick refresher on BC Politics I recommend
 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_general_election,_2017 and
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252511.0
http://www.electionprediction.org/2017_bc/index.php
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-votes-2017-a-look-at-the-issues-in-your-riding-1.4073152
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_general_election,_2013


http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/bc-simulator-2017.html is a good seat projection simulator is here.

Predicted Items

Popular vote ( I have place Conservatives in other because of only running 10 candidates): BC Liberals: NDP: Greens: Other/Independents:

Seats ( I have place Conservatives in other because of only running 10 candidates): BC Liberals: NDP: Greens: Other/Independents:

Battle Ground riding predictions (I have tried to use past results and media speculation as a guide for which riding to choose.

Rural/Interior and Northern BC:
Skeena-
Boundary-Similkameen -
Penticton-
Cariboo North-
Fraser-Nicola-
Kamloops-North Thompson-

Vancouver and Suburbs:
Maple Ridge-Mission-
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows-
Surrey-Fleetwood-
Surrey-Guildford-
Delta North-
Burnaby-Lougheed-
Burnaby North-
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain-
Coquitlam-Maillardville-
Vancouver-Fraserview-
North Vancouver-Lonsdale-

Vancouver Island:
Courtenay-Comox-
Cowichan Valley-
Saanich North and the Islands-
Victoria-Beacon Hill-
Esquimalt-Metchosin-

Any other ridings that you predict will change hands that I have not listed (excluding Delta North and Peace River North which will have retiring Independent MLA's):

Feel free to update your predictions anytime up until May 9th as many times as you want to.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Predicted Items

Popular vote ( I have place Conservatives in other because of only running 10 candidates): BC Liberals:38 NDP:40 Greens:19  Other/Independents:3

Seats ( I have place Conservatives in other because of only running 10 candidates): BC Liberals:39 NDP:45 Greens:3 Other/Independents:0

Battle Ground riding predictions (I have tried to use past results and media speculation as a guide for which riding to choose.

Rural/Interior and Northern BC:
Skeena- NDP
Boundary-Similkameen -BC Liberal
Penticton-NDP
Cariboo North-NDP
Fraser-Nicola-NDP
Kamloops-North Thompson- BC Liberal

Vancouver and Suburbs:
Maple Ridge-Mission-NDP
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows-NDP
Surrey-Fleetwood-NDP
Surrey-Guildford- NDP
Delta North-NDP
Burnaby-Lougheed-NDP
Burnaby North-NDP
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain-NDP
Coquitlam-Maillardville-NDP
Vancouver-Fraserview-NDP
North Vancouver-Lonsdale- NDP

Vancouver Island:
Courtenay-Comox- NDP
Cowichan Valley-  Green
Saanich North and the Islands- Green
Victoria-Beacon Hill- NDP
Esquimalt-Metchosin- NDP

[Pragmatic Conservative]

(After seeing a bad trend in the polls, I am tempering my expectations. )
Updated Predicted Items

Popular vote ( I have place Conservatives in other because of only running 10 candidates): BC Liberals:41 NDP:38 Greens:18 Other/Independents:3

Seats ( I have place Conservatives in other because of only running 10 candidates): BC Liberals:52 NDP:32 Greens:3 Other/Independents:0

Battle Ground riding predictions (I have tried to use past results and media speculation as a guide for which riding to choose.

Rural/Interior and Northern BC:
Skeena- BC Liberal
Boundary-Similkameen -BC Liberal
Penticton- BC Liberal
Cariboo North- BC Liberal
Fraser-Nicola- BC Liberal
Kamloops-North Thompson- BC Liberal

Vancouver and Suburbs:
Maple Ridge-Mission- BC Liberal
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows- NDP
Surrey-Fleetwood- NDP
Surrey-Guildford- BC Liberal
Delta North- BC Liberal
Burnaby-Lougheed- NDP
Burnaby North- NDP
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain- BC Liberal
Coquitlam-Maillardville- NDP
Vancouver-Fraserview- BC Liberal
North Vancouver-Lonsdale- BC  Liberal
Port Moody-Coquitlam - BC Liberal
Surrey-Panorama - BC Liberal

Vancouver Island:
Courtenay-Comox- BC Liberal
Cowichan Valley-  Green
Saanich North and the Islands- Green
Victoria-Beacon Hill- NDP
Esquimalt-Metchosin- BC Liberal

Other predictions
Columbia River-Revelstoke goes Liberal.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Bump 24 hours to get your predictions in.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Ok Final Predictions (I kind of went bold this year not so much in the seat count but in how the seats are spread out, and yes the NDP will manage to win the popular vote but finish second in the seat count in a reverse 1996.)

Popular Vote
BC Liberal 40.75 NDP 41.25 Green 16.05 Other 2.95

Seats
BC Liberals 45 NDP 40 Green 2

Link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1h_jfUNraRicVc5RHBrc0lRRjk5RzA5M1VnNGdzRDhJRk1Z/view?usp=sharing

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Thanks for all of the predictions. I am waiting for final results from Elections BC, before I calculate final prediction scores.