Wisconsin Megathread

[Pragmatic Conservative]

I declare the Governor race is much more Tilt R than Likely R after tonight. Walker (unlike Screnock) on the ballot will boost the WOW numbers back to Romney levels, while holding on to the 2016 gains.

Republicans haven’t been able to beat Trumps margins in suburban countries in almost any election since 2016. So I am not sure why that is likely to change with Walker.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

I declare the Governor race is much more Tilt R than Likely R after tonight. Walker (unlike Screnock) on the ballot will boost the WOW numbers back to Romney levels, while holding on to the 2016 gains.

Republicans haven’t been able to beat Trumps margins in suburban countries in almost any election since 2016. So I am not sure why that is likely to change with Walker.

First of all, he’s the incumbent and has had a long history of contrasting himself against the crime rates and ghettoes of Milwaukee as well as union workers in order to win over the suburbs. Second of all, Dems couldn’t even recall him during the nadir of his governorship. Third, thanks to the alt-right and Trump, Walker now looks more moderate.

He is relatively polarizing statewide and in a polarized state with energized Dem turnout is the perfect setup for a Dem victory. Walkers likley opponent is also a popular incumbent in Tony Evers statewide officer who won re-election in a massive landslide last year. Also more establishment Republicans like Gillespie haven’t outperformed Trump at all in the suburbs. A lot of voters don’t seem to care much about ideology they just want to punish Trump/Republicans and I doubt that changes much by November.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Also what has to be more cornering for the Treasury elimination referendum being overwhelmingly rejected. This is something Republicans have put a fair amount of effort trying to push through only to see voters completely reject it. Unlike the SC race their is no candidate quality argument made for this vote; you more or less had a significant number of voters stating their disproval for Walker. Sure Walker won’t do worse then 45% but still if I was him I would be concerned about my re-election chances.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Just got off work not too long ago, and don't have anything to contribute to the conversation at this point....

Just wanted to say that usually on Election Nights in America when I'm working, first thing I do is check the topline numbers when I get homes, and then go back in time on the appropriate Atlas Forum from the early turnout numbers, etc through pages and pages of posts to feel like I am there at that previous moment in time as the results are coming in.

Thank you all for your live detailed live coverage and analysis of this election, and obviously there is ton's of more detailed raw data yet to mine, especially potential implications for the 2018 General Election in the Great State of Wisconsin.....   

One question I have, and not sure if I missed it, do we have unofficial final turnout numbers by County yet?

Yes https://www.wisconsinvote.org/election-results