the problem with 'Tribal voting' is the Catholic issue. Catholics value their tribe of Catholics over anything Trump has to offer.
If Catholics feel that their only choices are Hillary (who despises Catholics and everything we stand for) and Trump (who also despises everything we stand for), Catholics will just sit out or vote third party.
Trump needs: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, Ohio. He cannot win without Hispanic support because of Florida. And even if he increased his white turnout, he would have to appeal enough to Catholics to get over the hump. Basically, Trump is boned.
What Catholics do you speak to? We are certainly not a tribe.