Green Line
Junior Chimp
Posts: 7,599
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« on: May 25, 2016, 11:00:51 PM » |
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« edited: May 26, 2016, 12:02:05 AM by Green Line »
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Muon probably knows more about this than me, but I'll give my 2 cents.
It's possible, but highly unlikely IMO. The GOP has a handful of House seats (8 I believe) in Central Illinois and the Chicago burbs that went very narrowly for Obama (by a point or two in all cases), but Republicans run better downballot in all of these seats. Most of the incumbents in Obama districts ran unopposed in 2014 and the few who had challengers all won in blowouts. Unless suburban Chicago voters turn against local Republicans in a historic fashion, which they haven't yet done (even in 2008), I can't see a scenario where any of them lose. I would be surprised if Democrats are seriously contesting most of those seats anyway.
Another problem for the Democrats is that Jack Franks is retiring (HD-62 based in McHenry County). His seat is going to be hard for the Dems to keep.
I don't know as much about the Senate, but the only Republican in an Obama district is Neil Anderson in Rock Island. He's in his first term, so he won't be up for re-election.
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