Election models megathread (user search)
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June 05, 2024, 06:28:19 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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  Election models megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Election models megathread  (Read 23649 times)
Statilius the Epicurean
Thersites
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,615
United Kingdom


« on: June 30, 2022, 05:55:11 PM »
« edited: June 30, 2022, 06:07:20 PM by Statilius the Epicurean »
What I don't understand is Nate said that the Senate forecast is taking into account that it thinks the general Congressional ballot will be R+6 by election day. I'm just highly, highly sceptical in an age of declining ticket splitting that Democratic Senate candidates will outrun generic D by 6, 8, 9 points in maybe half a dozen states. Seems like the model is overrating the predictive ability of June polling for a November election. Not many voters are paying attention to electoral politics at the moment.

And yes, I understand it's a polling site and they're supposed to be weighting polls heavily for that reason. But that's maybe a rationale for not releasing the model until September or so.
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Statilius the Epicurean
Thersites
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,615
United Kingdom


« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2022, 01:15:10 AM »
What happens in this timeline?
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