2017-2025 Scott Walker
2025-2029 Carly Fiorina
2029-2033 Kamala Harris
In a realignment period trending against their party, which took effect with Barack Obama's first-term election from 2008, the Republicans aren't going to string together three consecutive presidential victories.
I disagree with the premise.
You're allowed to feel that you "disagree." But, go back to the previous realignments of 1800–1824 (Democratic–Republican), 1828–1856 (Democratic), 1860–1892 (Republican), 1896–1928 (Republican), 1932–1964 (Democratic), and 1968–2004 (Republican) and cite an example of the out party having won three consecutive election cycles.
Texas sharpshooter fallacy. Of course if you go back retroactively, periods in which the roulette wheel chooses the red several times in a row are not going to have three blacks in a row. That has no statistical bearing on the future though. Unless you can provide some inherent reason why there should be merit to such 40 (36? 28?) year cyclic behavior, I shall continue to regard it as as valid as astrology.
Realignments are not “fallacies.”
I will let you do your own research—assuming you’re capable—which should be a help to you.
What is even more amusing is that your entire theory contradicts itself. 537 more votes for Al Gore in Florida would provide a counterexample where Democrats won three consecutive elections in a Republican "realignment." Are we supposed to believe that such an insignificant difference is attributable to historicist hogwash? Similarly, are we to attribute Nixon's whisker loss in 1960 not to a poor debate performance or high turnout at the cemeteries, but to destiny?
Additionally, as I pointed out earlier, your alignment periods are of inconsistent length. The first is 28 years, the second is 32 years, then three of 36 years, followed by 40 years. Your realignment intervals should at least be consistent if you want a testable theory. Otherwise, couldn't one just as easily define the realignment periods as being 1968-1988 (Republican) and 1992-2012 (Democratic)? Both of those 24 year periods would be only 4 years short of your shortest realignment.
