Senate Elections Model - Post-2018 Update

[mencken]

I told y'all that if you crunch the numbers, Arizona and Florida should be much safer for the Democrats than they currently are.

I take slight issue with North Dakota and West Virginia. I do not think we can obtain meaningful predictions regarding these races, unless there is historical precedent in your model for incumbents in states won by the opposite party President by >35 points running for re-election?

[mencken]

Also, interesting that you also picked up on an overall Democratic advantage in Senate elections. When I did the numbers, I assigned Florida 2006, Nevada/Colorado/Delaware 2010, Missouri/Indiana 2012, and Alabama 2017 to a special category. Having a gaffe-magnet for a Republican nominee cost ~9% overall, but Democrats' built-in advantage persisted (it was ~2%, small but it makes the difference with close races)