mencken
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,222
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« on: December 21, 2017, 09:53:53 AM » |
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No, you have it all wrong. Trump's hick base will not show up since he has utterly failed to make America great again; meanwhile any other decent person will show up and vote for the Democratic nominee to virtue-signal their resistance to Trump.
LEAN GOP: Wyoming, Nebraska (Modestly Republican leaning states without credible Democrat opponents, but in a wave these might flip)
TOSSUP: Utah, Mississippi (Trump only got 45% in Utah, and you saw what happened in next-door Alabama)
LEAN DEM: Texas, Tennessee (Demographics is destiny in any state with an appreciable Hispanic population, and Bredensen was extremely popular when he last ran for office 12 years ago)
LIKELY DEM: Nevada, Arizona (class I), Arizona (class III), North Dakota (See the description of Texas above for why Nevada and Arizona will never again vote for another Republican. Heitkamp is in slightly greater danger than the rest of her colleagues since Trump said nice things about her that one time)
SAFE DEM: Every other seat (Do you seriously think a Democrat incumbent is going to lose reelection in a wave year?)
Looks like the Democrats are looking at a majority between 54 and 56 seats (but probably the higher end of that since Tossups will all go the Democrats because its a wave year). Possibly could go as high as 57 if Cochran were to resign.
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