The AAPOR report on 2016 “polling failure” (user search)
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  The AAPOR report on 2016 “polling failure” (search mode)
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Author Topic: The AAPOR report on 2016 “polling failure”  (Read 1262 times)
mencken
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« on: May 06, 2017, 07:02:01 AM »
« edited: May 06, 2017, 07:13:12 AM by mencken »

Isn't demographic weighting itself a pretty shoddy practice? It is essentially increasing the effective margin of error of the poll to avoid ugly-looking crosstabs.

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This is especially rich, considering Trafalgar had the best Michigan poll (beating PPP, Fox, and implicitly every national pollster who thought Michigan was uncompetitive), and the best Pennsylvania poll (beating Quinnipiac, CNN, CBS, and NYT). Ohio was a much tighter race in the polls conducted by CBS, Quinnipiac, Suffolk, CNN, and NBC (the latter two of whom did not even bother to poll after mid-October) than in such luminaries as Remington, Trafalgar, and Emerson. The winners in North Carolina were once again Trafalgar and Remington, beating out Quinnipiac, NYT, CBS, and NBC.
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