Every cycle MI does this, and every time so many people fall for it.
EPIC-MRA had Obama up 10 here at a similar point in 2012, almost exactly what he ended up getting. They had him up only 3 after the first debate, but given the national polls that may have been an accurate reflection of sentiment at the time.
In 2008 they had Obama up 1, but to be fair McCain's Hail Mary Palin pick brought the national polls to a tie for a few weeks. I think it would make sense that Obama's economic meltdown-fueled surge would have a disproportionate effect in a high unemployment state such as Michigan. EPIC's next poll a few days later had Obama up 10, about 6 points more R than the actual result.
